HELP & TUTORIAL

Upturn Advisories

Enhance Your Investment Strategy with Upturn's Additional Features

Upturn Gauge: The Pulse of Bulls and Bears

Analyzing the distribution of BUY and SELL advisories among stocks which are Large-cap or Mid-cap and rated Upturn 3 Star or higher reveals overarching trends in the U.S. stock market. This analysis helps identify whether the market sentiment is bullish, bearish, or anticipating a correction.

The Upturn Advisories graph features color-coded sections—yellow, blue, and red—that help investors quickly assess market conditions, indicating periods of recession, growth, or potential correction. This graph is overlaid on the S&P 500 price chart, offering a clear view of the U.S. market's performance.

Understanding Upturn's Stock/ETF Advisory Chart

This chart gives a clear, visual overview of Upturn's past BUY and SELL advisories for Apple (AAPL) used as an example, helping everyday investors see how those calls performed and what the current recommendation is.

Key Elements of the Chart

1. • Stock Price: The price shown ($229.86) is delayed by 24 hours, reflecting the last market close (usually from the previous trading day).
   • Upturn Star Rating: Apple’s 3-star Upturn Star Rating indicates that, based on Upturn’s advisory, the stock has historically performed in line with the broader market—delivering stable but modest returns. However, past performance is not indicative of future results.
   • Current Advisory: PASS: “PASS” means Upturn does not recommend buying or holding Apple stock at this time.
   • Other possible advisories include:
     
     • STRONG BUY / BUY / WEAK BUY – graded confidence in buying
     • SELL – indicates it's time to exit if you're holding the stock
   • BUY & SELL Dots Explained
     • Blue Dots = BUY Signals — When Upturn previously advised buying.
     • Green Dots = SELL with Profit — Selling would have earned a gain.
     • Red Dots = SELL with Loss — Selling would have resulted in a loss.
     Each BUY-SELL cycle is tracked to show how Upturn’s signals would have performed based on simulations.
   • 📊 Profit & Loss Bars
     • Blue Bars = Profit — When the simulated trade made money.
     • Orange Bars = Loss — When the simulated trade would’ve lost money.
     • The percentage above each bar shows how much the simulated trade gained or lost.
   • 📅 Time Range & Trend Analysis
     • The chart shows how Apple’s price has moved over time, with simulated trades overlayed.
     • You can switch between ALL, YEAR, MONTH, or WEEK views to spot short- or long-term patterns.
     • This helps identify trends, market cycles, and the timing of past recommendations.

Investors are advised to consult the Disclosures section for details on the assumptions made in these simulations. While the simulations aim for directional accuracy, actual returns may vary due to market conditions and execution factors.

What Do Upturn Advisories Mean?

BUY Advisory (Strong / Regular / Weak)
A BUY advisory means the stock or ETF appears to be trending upward, based on Upturn’s AI/ML and quantitative analysis. There are three levels:

1. STRONG BUY
   Many strong signals point to an uptrend.
   This is a good time to buy the stock or ETF if you are considering an entry.
2. REGULAR BUY
   Moderate signals suggest a likely uptrend.
   One might want to wait until it turns into a Strong Buy, but it could still be okay to buy—especially if the BUY advisory is recent (e.g., within the last 20 days).
3. WEAK BUY
   A few mild signals indicate a possible uptrend, but the trend is weak.
   This may not be a good time to buy. The advisory could shift to SELL anytime.

Note: If the stock or ETF has a 1- or 2-star rating, even with a BUY signal, Upturn will show: "Consider higher Upturn Star rating" for better historical performance.

1. PASS Advisory
   A PASS means there’s no strong uptrend at the moment.
   It’s best to skip this stock or ETF for now and wait for clearer signals.
2. SELL Advisory
   A SELL advisory appears when growth signals fade and no further upward momentum is expected.
   This is a signal to exit the position if you’re already holding it.

Upturn Star Rating for Stocks and ETFs

The Upturn Star Rating reflects the investment potential of stocks and ETFs based solely on their historical performance against Upturn Advisories. It does not currently factor in company or ETF fundamentals. The Upturn Star Rating is derived from a combination of the following factors:

1. Upturn Advisory Performance: Evaluates the historical success rate of Upturn's AI-driven BUY/SELL advisories, indicating how often these recommendations have led to profitable outcomes.
2. Stock Returns Performance: Measures the cumulative returns achieved from following Upturn's advisories, based on simulated trading scenarios.
3. Recent Stock Behavior: Considers the stock's recent performance trends to provide a timely assessment of its current investment appeal.

By integrating these elements, the Upturn Star Rating offers a comprehensive view of a stock or ETF's performance and potential.

Making the Most of Upturn Star Ratings

The Upturn Star Rating can help investors make smarter, data-backed decisions:

1. Focus on High Performers: Prioritize stocks and ETFs rated 4 stars or above to target historically strong investments.
2. Avoid Underperformers: Improve portfolio quality by excluding 1- and 2-star rated assets with weaker performance histories.
3. Discover New Opportunities: Uncover high-potential stocks and ETFs that may have been overlooked, guided by their strong Upturn ratings.
4. Build Smarter Portfolios: Create diversified Robo-portfolios using a balanced mix of top-rated stocks and ETFs aligned with your goals and risk appetite.

Integrating the Upturn Star Rating into your investment process supports more informed, confident, and goal-oriented decision-making.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Charts showcasing revenue by product segments and geographic regions, along with year-on-year growth, is provided for every stock, provides the user several key things:

1. Revenue Diversification and Concentration (Product & Geography):
   • Product Portfolio Analysis: It reveals the company's revenue streams and the relative importance of each product segment. Users can quickly understand if a company's revenue is heavily reliant on a single product or if it has a diversified portfolio.
   • Geographic Revenue Analysis: It also shows the distribution of revenue across different geographic regions, indicating the company's reliance on specific markets.
   • Revenue Concentration Risk: It highlights potential risks associated with over-reliance on a single product segment or geographic market. If one segment or region underperforms, the company's overall revenue could be significantly impacted.
2. Growth Trends (Product & Geography):
   • Year-on-Year Performance: It provides a clear picture of how each product segment and geographic region's revenue has changed over time. Users can assess growth rates and identify trends.
   • Growth Potential: It helps users evaluate the growth potential of different product segments and geographic markets, identifying areas where the company is experiencing strong growth or decline.
3. Business Focus and Strategy (Product & Geography):
   • Strategic Priorities: It reveals the company's strategic focus and priorities, both in terms of product development and market expansion. Users can see which segments and regions are generating the most revenue and likely receiving the most investment.
   • Business Model Insight: It provides insights into the company's business model and its geographic footprint, showing how it generates revenue across different markets.
4. Comparative Analysis:
   • Benchmarking: Users can compare the revenue performance of different companies within the same industry, both in terms of product segments and geographic reach.
   • Investment Decisions: This information helps users make informed investment decisions by understanding the revenue dynamics of each company, considering both product and geographic diversification and growth.

In essence, it gives the user comprehensive insight into the revenue health and business strategy of a company, considering both product and geographic dimensions, and allows them to perform detailed comparative analysis.

Watchlist, Robo-Portfolios and ETF Zone

Upturn.io's dashboard offers a suite of curated tools designed to enhance your investment experience.

The Watchlist feature allows you to monitor your preferred stocks and ETFs, providing real-time advisories and performance updates.

With Robo-Portfolios, you can create and manage personalized collections of stocks and ETFs, either through automated sampling or by selecting assets that align with your specific interests and risk criteria or any other filters. This enables you to evaluate portfolio performance and receive timely notifications on advisory changes.

Additionally, the ETF Zone showcases all Upturn 3+ Star Rated ETFs, assisting you in identifying top-rated exchange-traded funds for potential investment opportunities.

Instant and Custom Robo Portfolios

Upturn.io empowers investors with Robo-Portfolios, enabling seamless stock and ETF discovery through AI-driven portfolio creation.

With Instant Robo-Portfolios, users can generate optimized portfolios in seconds (usually less than a minute) based on their custom filters, leveraging Upturn’s advanced simulations.

Behind the scenes, for Instant robo-portfolios, Upturn enhances portfolio creation by generating 500 simulated portfolios, each comprising randomly selected stocks/ ETFs based on user-defined filters. The platform then identifies the portfolio with the strongest historical performance and highest Sharpe Ratio. This random selection process ensures that, given a sufficiently diverse pool of stocks and ETFs curated through the filter, each simulation yields a unique portfolio, even when applying the same filters.

For a more tailored approach, Custom Robo-Portfolios allow users to define filters, handpick stocks or ETFs, and track their investments effortlessly.

Every Robo-Portfolio on Upturn is assigned an Upturn Star Rating, reflecting its historical cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios based on investments made following Upturn's advisories. This rating provides investors with a clear understanding of the portfolio's past performance and risk-adjusted returns.

With Robo-Portfolios, investors can experiment with multiple strategies, refine their holdings, and compare their portfolio's performance against the SPY index, utilizing Upturn's advisories. The platform offers feedback on portfolio composition, such as diversification levels (e.g., holding fewer than 12 stocks may indicate less diversification) and the inclusion of higher-rated Upturn stocks. Additionally, it displays current BUY and SELL advisories for each asset within the Robo-Portfolio, enabling data-backed investment decisions with confidence.

Robo-Portfolios Vis-à-Vis Robo-Advisors

Upturn Robo-Portfolios give you the power of a robo-advisor, with the flexibility of a DIY strategy—and none of the guesswork. With transparent performance metrics, daily signals, and customizable filters, it’s like building a portfolio with a research team by your side.​ If you're ready to take charge of your investing without flying blind, Upturn might just be your smarter, data-driven alternative to traditional robo-advisors.

Upturn vs. Robo-Advisors: A Side-by-Side Comparison

Robo-Portfolio Construction Guidelines

A minimum of 12 stocks is recommended per Robo-Portfolio (especially if all are stocks) to promote diversification.

Upturn does not enforce sector or market diversification—stock selection is guided by user-defined filters such as:

1. Upturn Star Rating
2. Market Capitalization (e.g., large-cap or mid-cap or small-cap)
3. Security Type (stock or ETF)
4. Stock Price Range
5. Current Advisory Status (e.g., Strong Buy, Buy, Pass)

The stocks and ETFs are chosen from the pool that matches the selected filters—either randomly, in full, or selectively based on additional user preferences, such as deeper research into specific companies.

Robo Portfolio Performance Metrics

Each Robo Portfolio includes a Comprehensive performance metrics, including cumulative returns benchmarked against the S&P 500, Sharpe Ratio, annual returns, and volatility, offer deep insights into portfolio effectiveness.

Robo-Portfolios on Upturn.io are evaluated using multiple key metrics to help investors make informed decisions.

The Summary provides a high-level overview, including factors such as the number of stocks in the portfolio and the presence of higher-rated Upturn stocks.

To illustrate potential gains, Upturn.io simulates a hypothetical investment of $1.0 in an equal-weighted Robo-Portfolio, tracking performance based on Upturn’s BUY and SELL advisories. This is then compared to the same investment in SPY, providing a tangible measure of portfolio strength.

Beyond cumulative returns, additional portfolio performance metrics include the Sharpe Ratio, Annual Returns, Annual Volatility, and more.

Users can access detailed explanations of these metrics by clicking the help button next to Performance Metrics or in the Description of terms below.

Upturn Star Rating for Robo-Portfolios

The Upturn Star Rating for Robo-Portfolios indicates the overall investment potential based on historical advisory performance of a portfolio, based on a hypothetical investment strategy that follows Upturn’s BUY and SELL advisories. The rating is derived from the collective performance of the individual stocks or ETFs in the portfolio over a selected time period—past two years, one year, one quarter, or one month—as captured in the Robo Portfolio Performance metrics. It combines both cumulative returns and risk-adjusted performance to offer a comprehensive view of portfolio quality.

How Upturn Calculates Star Ratings for Robo-Portfolios

1. Cumulative return: Measures how well the portfolio would have performed if an investor had followed Upturn’s historical advisories in the given time.
2. Sharpe ratio: Captures the risk-adjusted return—measures how much return a portfolio generates relative to the amount of risk taken, helping assess the quality of returns after accounting for volatility.

Understanding Robo-Portfolio Star Ratings

The Robo-Portfolio Star Rating is calculated on a portfolio simulation which is over the past two years. Portfolios are then rated from 5 stars to 1 star based on the thresholds below:

From Search to Success: Search powered by AI

Upturn simplifies and enhances your investment journey with robust search functionalities and personalized tools.

Efficient Search Capabilities Effortlessly locate stocks and ETFs by entering their names or symbols into the search bar. For batch searches, input multiple symbols separated by commas (e.g., "AAPL,TSLA,AMZN,MSFT") to view collective advisories. Moreover, Upturn's AI-driven natural language processing allows searches based on themes or sectors, such as "Apparel retailers", "CPU manufacturers", "Lithium companies" or "ETFs on cleantech" delivering relevant results tailored to your interests.

Interactive Stock and ETF Exploration Clicking on any stock or ETF card reveals detailed information and performance charts. Utilize the "Add to List" feature to seamlessly incorporate assets into your personalized "Watchlist" or any "Robo-Portfolio," facilitating organized tracking and management of your investments.

Customizable Robo-Portfolios Upturn empowers you to create Robo-Portfolios from search results, enabling the construction of diversified portfolios aligned with your investment strategies. This feature supports both instant and customized portfolio creation, allowing for tailored investment approaches.

Experience a streamlined and intelligent investment process with Upturn.io, designed to cater to both novice and seasoned investors.

Smarter Investment Discovery with Upturn Filters

Powerful Search & Filtering Upturn enhances your investment research with advanced filtering options, allowing you to tailor searches for stocks and ETFs based on specific criteria. Whether you're looking for high-performing assets, market trends, or personalized investment opportunities, Upturn makes it simple and effective.

Personalized Investment Filters Easily refine your search by filtering stocks/ETFs with a "BUY" advisory or an Upturn 4+ Star rating. Additional filters allow you to sort by asset type (stocks or ETFs), market capitalization (e.g., large-cap), and Upturn advisory performance (historical accuracy of recommendations). You can also assess Upturn stock performance (how stocks reacted to Upturn's BUY and SELL signals), company size, daily trade volume, or whether an asset is currently labeled as a Top Performer or Top Pick.

Risk Awareness & Enhanced Insights To help investors assess risk effectively, Upturn incorporates risk annotations, categorizing filter selection as "low-risk" "medium-risk" or "high-risk" These labels consider factors like company size, trade volume, and historical advisory performance, providing an extra layer of transparency for decision-making.

Confident, Data-Driven Investing By leveraging Upturn's robust search and filtering capabilities, investors can efficiently discover, analyze, and act on investment opportunities that align with their financial goals and risk preferences.

Upturn Market Overview

Upturn's dashboard features a Market Overview card displaying the total number of Upturn 3+ Star-rated, Large-cap or Mid-cap stocks, along with those currently holding a BUY recommendation.

Investors can easily access filtered lists by clicking on these numbers, streamlining the process of identifying top-rated investment opportunities.

Descriptions of terms and metrics

The following section describes performance metrics and terms used

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Upturn Star Rating For Stocks and ETFs

5 Star Rating Outstanding - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, have historically outperformed the market, making them a top-tier choice for investors.

4 Star Rating Above Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, frequently surpass the market, reflecting largely reliable performance.

3 Star Rating Moderate - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, typically align with the market average, offering steady but unremarkable returns.

2 Star Rating Below Average - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.

1 Star Rating Not Recommended - These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

BUY Advisory (strong/regular/weak)

“BUY” advisory indicates the stock or ETF could be in an Upturn or upwards trending based on the AI/ML and Quantitative analysis. The “BUY” advisory is often annotated such as

• STRONG BUY
• REGULAR BUY
• WEAK BUY

All of these indicate a “buy” advisory based on technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) but shows different degree of trends or factors which are positively influencing the “buy” advisory. For instance, “strong buy” has more trends or factors in the algorithm showing positive “buy” trend compared to “regular buy” and has much lower trends or factors suggesting “buy” for “weak buy”.

Also, if the Stock or ETF has Upturn star rating of 1 or 2, the “BUY” advisory is shown as “Consider higher Upturn Star rating”

PASS Advisory

A “pass” advisory indicates that there are no upturns or upward trends seen in the stock or ETF to recommend a “buy” for now and hence the stock or ETF could be passed for now.

SELL Advisory

When the technical analysis (AI/ML and Quantitative) doesn’t show any continued positive trends or factors to further influence the upward movement of the Stock or the ETF, the BUY advisory is updated to a SELL advisory.

Stocks and Stocks Chart (Simulated)

Following are terms and its definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations.

Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.

Historic Profits

This is simulated compounded returns expressed in percentage Compounded means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns was reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive. Historic Profits also include Unrealized profits which is described below.

Unrealized gains or profits, also known as "paper profits," represent the increase in value of assets that have not yet been sold. In the context of Upturn.io, these gains occur when a "BUY" recommendation has been issued for a stock or ETF, but no corresponding "SELL" recommendation has been made. Consequently, the asset remains in a "BUY" status, and any potential profits or losses are considered unrealized until a "SELL" recommendation is executed. In simulation scenarios, this means the asset is held without being sold, so the returns are not yet realized.

The compounded profits takes into consideration the simulation of having reinvested the principal and returns for all the recommendations of the Company for the stock since the simulation start date, which is over 2.5 years. The date was chosen to ensure that the simulation data spans more than 2 years and is measured as a percentage. The profits can be positive in case of a profit or could be negative in case of a loss. (The disclosures below provides details about the assumptions while calculating returns in a simulated transaction) [1]

Upturn Advisory Performance

This is a measure of how well Upturn advisory performed for this stock based on simulation. That is, what percentage of times when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL” did the simulation show a profit. ​

Stock Returns Performance

This is a measure of how well the stock returns performed with respect to Upturn advisory for the stock based on simulation. That is, what is the cumulative returns for the stock in terms of percentage when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL”. ​

SELL Advisory (Profit)

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of Upturn recommendations starting over 2.5 years, for the stock which ended in a profit (i.e., positive return).

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation.

SELL Advisory (Loss)

This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of the Company’s recommendations starting over 2.5 years​, for the stock which ended in a loss or negative returns.

Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation

Robo-Portfolio performance simulation charts and ratios

Upturn.io's Robo-Portfolio simulations allocate equal weight to each stock, calculating daily returns over approximately the past 2.5 years. The simulations track performance as if executing "BUY" or "SELL" actions based on the platform's advisories. Please review the disclosures for assumptions and considerations regarding simulated or hypothetical returns and ratios. This section details the various performance metrics and terms utilized.

Note: Please read the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations

Upturn uses Python Empyrical library (or its close implementation)

https://github.com/quantopian/empyrical for the calculation of key ratios and performance metrics of the Portfolio simulation.

Cumulative Returns

This is simulated compounded returns of the Robo-portfolio expressed in percentage. When this is shown in charts, the Robo-Portfolio starts with a principal value of 1 (normalized value for charts) and simulates how it performed if executed "BUY" and "SELL" based on Upturn Advisory on each of the stocks (with the assumptions as discussed in Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations) over the last 2.5 years. The charts also compare these cumulative returns with SPY (S&P SPDR 500 ETF). You can zoom into the performance starting from 1 year ago or 3 months ago

Annualized Returns

This is the mean annual growth rate of returns of the equally weighted Robo Portfolio as per simulation

Sharpe Ratio

This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted Robo Portfolio as per simulation

Annual Volatility

This is a measure of risk in annualized term. It indicates how far the prices could swing in either direction from the average value

Alpha

This is the measure of the equally weighted simulated Robo Portfolio’s ability to beat the market or how does it compares to the market (here SPY is used to indicate market)

Beta

Alpha is typically measured along with beta which measures the overall market risk of the simulated Robo Portfolio (here SPY is used to indicate market)