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- Upturn Summary
- Fund Details
Upturn AI Summary
SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF(FCTE)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FCTE
10/28/2026: FCTE (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
FCTE provides exposure to broad equity markets with a tactical, trend-following overlay that shifts the portfolio into cash during perceived market downturns. Its core strength lies in its systematic, rules-based methodology, which aims to reduce downside risk while still capturing gains during bullish phases. It is best suited for investors seeking a quantitative, non-discretionary alternative to passive index investing. Key risks include potential performance drag in sideways markets and the dependency on the proprietary model's effectiveness. Investors should monitor the fund’s tracking of market trends and the costs associated with its active strategy.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
ETF holdings, costs, diversification, valuation, risks, and market conditions provide supporting context about the fund.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While it captures growth in bull markets, the tactical shifts may cause the investor to miss the early stages of a recovery. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The fund's core strategy is built on momentum-based trend signals, aligning well with momentum investing principles. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The fund focuses on price trends rather than fundamental valuation metrics of the underlying holdings. |
| Dividend/Income investor | Weak fit | The fund is oriented toward capital appreciation and risk mitigation rather than income generation. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While it seeks to mitigate large drawdowns, the fund remains susceptible to 'whipsaw' risk where the signal may trigger poorly during sideways markets. |
Investor Profile
Ideal Investor Profile
The ideal investor is one who acknowledges the risks of market volatility and prefers a systematic, quantitative approach to manage market exposure rather than passive buy-and-hold.
Suitability
It is best for medium to long-term investors who want to attempt to dampen portfolio volatility but are comfortable with the risks of active tactical management.
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility | Medium / high | The fund's reliance on trend signals can lead to rapid shifts in allocation, impacting short-term portfolio volatility. |
| Market risk | Medium | The fund is subject to general equity market risk during its 'bull' phases. |
| Concentration | Medium | Depending on the underlying ETF holdings, the fund may have exposure concentrations in specific equity market segments. |
| Tracking/expense | Medium | Active management and tactical turnover can result in higher costs and tracking differences relative to passive benchmarks. |
| Liquidity | Medium | Lower trading volumes for the fund itself can lead to wider bid-ask spreads during market stress. |
| Business/sector quality | Low | The strategy is broad-market focused, reducing sensitivity to the failure of any single company or sector. |
Risk Analysis
Volatility
FCTE's historical volatility is moderated by its cash-holding capability, but it experiences bursts of volatility when the trend signal triggers frequent allocation changes.
Market Risk
The primary risk is market exposure risk during 'bull' phases and the risk of the model failing to signal an exit before a major correction.
What the ETF Owns
| Exposure Type | Exposure | Weight (%) | Retail Investor Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | US Large-Cap Equity ETFs | 95 | This provides the primary engine for capital appreciation when the fund's trend model signals a positive market environment. |
| Cash/collateral | Short-Term Cash Equivalents | 5 | Cash serves as a defensive buffer during periods where the strategy signals a move out of the equity market to protect capital. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type ETF | Historic Profit -1.59% | Avg. Invested days 58 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | ETF Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
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