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Upturn AI Summary
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF(IEF)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for IEF
10/02/2026: IEF (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) provides cost-effective, liquid access to intermediate-term US Treasury notes. It is a cornerstone for investors looking to balance portfolio risk with high-quality income, primarily serving as a stabilizer against stock market volatility. While it benefits from the credit strength of the US government, it remains sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which is the primary risk for holders. IEF is ideal for conservative, income-focused investors, though market participants should monitor Federal Reserve policy as a key performance catalyst.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
ETF holdings, costs, diversification, valuation, risks, and market conditions provide supporting context about the fund.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | This ETF focuses on capital preservation and income rather than the aggressive appreciation sought by growth investors. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum traders may use IEF during periods of anticipated interest rate cuts when bond prices trend upward. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value investors may allocate to IEF when they perceive current bond yields offer attractive risk-adjusted compensation. |
| Dividend/Income investor | Strong fit | The fund provides a reliable stream of interest income from sovereign-backed securities. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | As a US Treasury-backed fund, it offers minimal credit risk, making it a cornerstone for conservative portfolios. |
Investor Profile
Ideal Investor Profile
Conservative investors, retirees seeking steady income, and tactical traders hedging against economic uncertainty.
Suitability
Best suited for long-term investors looking for a portfolio stabilizer and traders requiring a liquid vehicle for interest rate speculation.
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility | Medium | While safer than stocks, bond prices fluctuate in response to changes in market interest rates. |
| Market risk | Medium | The primary risk is interest rate sensitivity, where rising rates cause the fund's net asset value to decline. |
| Concentration | High | The portfolio is concentrated entirely in US Treasury notes, limiting diversification across asset classes. |
| Tracking/expense | Low | Management fees are low and the fund tracks its target index very efficiently. |
| Liquidity | Low | The high volume of trading in this ETF ensures that liquidity risk is virtually nonexistent. |
| Business/sector quality | Low / none | The underlying assets are backed by the US government, effectively eliminating credit default risk. |
Risk Analysis
Volatility
IEF exhibits moderate historical volatility that correlates inversely with equity markets during stress events.
Market Risk
The primary risk is interest rate duration; a 1% rise in rates typically results in a decline in share price roughly proportional to the fund's duration.
What the ETF Owns
| Exposure Type | Exposure | Weight (%) | Retail Investor Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-income type | US Treasury Notes (7-10 Year Maturity) | 99.5 | These holdings provide predictable interest income backed by the US government with moderate interest rate sensitivity. |
| Cash/collateral | Cash and Cash Equivalents | 0.5 | This small portion represents pending trades and liquidity for fund operations. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type ETF | Historic Profit 6.3% | Avg. Invested days 69 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | ETF Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/02/2026 |
ETF Fundamentals 
Source: EOD Historical Data • Updated Oct 2, 2026
Fund Basics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fund Size (AUM) | $41.57B |
| Issuer | iShares |
| Expense Ratio | 0.15% |
| Distribution Yield | 3.97% |
| Inception | Jul 22, 2002 |
Performance
| Period | Total Return |
|---|---|
| YTD | -3.90% |
| 1 Year | -2.81% |
| 3 Year | +3.09% |
| 5 Year | -1.99% |
| 10 Year | +0.19% |
Risk Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 1Y Volatility | 4.19% |
| 3Y Volatility | 6.57% |
| 3Y Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 |
Ratings
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Morningstar Rating | ★★★★★ |
| Benchmark | BBgBarc US Agg Bond TR USD |
Top Sectors
| Sector | Weight |
|---|---|
| Basic Materials | 0.00% |
| Consumer Cyclicals | 0.00% |
| Financial Services | 0.00% |
| Real Estate | 0.00% |
Asset Allocation
Portfolio Characteristics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Holdings Turnover | 53.0% |
Top Holdings
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| United States Treasury Notes 0.88% | 15.66% |
| United States Treasury Notes 3.13% | 14.93% |
| United States Treasury Notes 2.63% | 12.55% |
| United States Treasury Notes 2.38% | 10.07% |
| United States Treasury Notes 1.5% | 9.14% |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
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