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Upturn AI Summary
Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares(NAIL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NAIL
09/25/2026: NAIL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NAIL is a 3x leveraged ETF designed to track the daily performance of U.S. home construction stocks. It is primarily used by active, short-term traders to amplify exposure to housing sector trends, leveraging derivatives to achieve its daily goal. Key strengths include its targeted sectoral focus and high liquidity, but investors face significant risks from daily compounding decay, high volatility, and potential for severe losses in unfavorable markets. It is best suited for experienced investors with high risk tolerance for tactical, day-to-day trading, rather than long-term portfolio holding.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
ETF holdings, costs, diversification, valuation, risks, and market conditions provide supporting context about the fund.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The fund's high volatility and decay profile make it unsuitable for long-term growth investing. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Active momentum traders can use NAIL to amplify gains during short-term sustained uptrends in the housing sector. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The daily reset structure and high expense ratio conflict with the core philosophy of value investing. |
| Dividend/Income investor | Weak fit | NAIL is not designed to provide consistent income or dividend yields. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The 3x leverage creates extreme risk profiles that are inappropriate for conservative portfolios. |
Investor Profile
Ideal Investor Profile
Sophisticated, active traders with a high risk tolerance who are monitoring the housing market on a daily basis.
Suitability
Not suitable for long-term investors or passive followers; designed strictly for short-term tactical positions.
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility | High | Daily 3x leverage subjects the investment to rapid and extreme price swings. |
| Market risk | High | The fund is fully exposed to the cyclical risks of the residential construction market. |
| Concentration | High | Performance is tied to a single narrow industry sector, increasing idiosyncratic risk. |
| Tracking/expense | Medium / high | Daily compounding and high fees can significantly erode returns over time. |
| Liquidity | Medium | While generally liquid, spreads can expand during market dislocations, increasing trading costs. |
| Business/sector quality | Medium / high | The underlying builders are sensitive to interest rate hikes and consumer spending patterns. |
Risk Analysis
Volatility
NAIL is categorized as extremely volatile due to the 3x leverage, which amplifies both gains and losses significantly beyond the underlying sector movement.
Market Risk
The fund is highly sensitive to interest rate policy and economic health, as housing is a major interest-rate-sensitive industry.
What the ETF Owns
| Exposure Type | Exposure | Weight (%) | Retail Investor Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | U.S. Homebuilders & Supplies (seeks 3x daily return) | 95 | The fund provides concentrated 3x leveraged exposure to companies involved in residential construction and home supply. |
| Cash/collateral | Cash and Cash Equivalents | 5 | This portion represents liquidity held to manage margin requirements and daily share redemptions. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type ETF | Historic Profit 18.73% | Avg. Invested days 30 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | ETF Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
ETF Fundamentals 
Source: EOD Historical Data • Updated Sep 25, 2026
Fund Basics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fund Size (AUM) | $551.08M |
| Issuer | Direxion Funds |
| Expense Ratio | 0.97% |
| Distribution Yield | 0.85% |
| Inception | Aug 19, 2015 |
Performance
| Period | Total Return |
|---|---|
| YTD | -39.11% |
| 1 Year | -58.70% |
| 3 Year | -18.07% |
| 5 Year | -16.30% |
| 10 Year | +1.72% |
Risk Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 1Y Volatility | 78.38% |
| 3Y Volatility | 93.74% |
| 3Y Sharpe Ratio | 0.14 |
Ratings
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Morningstar Rating | ★★★★★ |
| Benchmark | S&P 500 TR USD |
Market Cap Distribution
| Cap Size | Weight |
|---|---|
| Mid Cap | 10.44% |
| Small Cap | 7.01% |
| Micro Cap | 1.84% |
| Large Cap | 1.80% |
Top Sectors
| Sector | Weight |
|---|---|
| Consumer Cyclicals | 76.78% |
| Industrials | 14.12% |
| Basic Materials | 8.30% |
| Real Estate | 0.80% |
Asset Allocation
Portfolio Characteristics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio P/E | 14.92x |
| Portfolio P/B | 1.75x |
| Portfolio P/S | 1.18x |
| Holdings Turnover | 0.0% |
Top Holdings
| Holding | Weight |
|---|---|
| DR Horton | 3.78% |
| PulteGroup | 2.38% |
| NVR | 1.67% |
| Lennar | 1.61% |
| Toll Brothers | 0.97% |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
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