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- Upturn Summary
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Upturn AI Summary
Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares(NAIL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NAIL
10/23/2026: NAIL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NAIL is a 3x leveraged ETF designed to provide daily returns equal to 300% of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. While it offers a powerful tool for short-term momentum trading and sector amplification, it is not meant for long-term holding due to the effects of daily compounding and volatility decay. Investors benefit from its high trading liquidity but must manage risks related to sector concentration and interest rate sensitivity. This fund is best suited for experienced tactical traders who actively monitor market signals rather than long-term investors or those seeking steady income.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
ETF holdings, costs, diversification, valuation, risks, and market conditions provide supporting context about the fund.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The aggressive 3x leverage may offer high growth potential but is inappropriate for long-term buy-and-hold growth strategies. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | NAIL is well-suited for momentum traders looking to capitalize on strong, short-term trends in the homebuilding sector. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The fund's leveraged and derivative-heavy structure contradicts traditional long-term value investing principles. |
| Dividend/Income investor | Weak fit | This fund is designed for capital appreciation of leveraged daily returns and does not provide stable income or dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The 3x daily leverage target makes this fund unsuitable for investors prioritizing capital preservation. |
Investor Profile
Ideal Investor Profile
The ideal investor is an experienced, active trader with a high risk tolerance and a short-term tactical horizon.
Suitability
NAIL is exclusively suited for active traders; it is not recommended for passive or long-term investors.
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility | High | 3x daily leverage amplifies price swings, leading to significant potential for rapid losses. |
| Market risk | High | The fund is fully exposed to the cyclical risks of the US homebuilding and supplies market. |
| Concentration | High | The focus on a single sub-sector increases sensitivity to industry-specific news and economic data. |
| Tracking/expense | High | Daily rebalancing and compounding decay mean the fund's returns deviate significantly from the index over time. |
| Liquidity | Medium | While liquid under normal conditions, the underlying derivatives could face liquidity stress during market dislocations. |
| Business/sector quality | Medium | Performance is tied to the interest-rate-sensitive homebuilding sector, which is prone to boom-bust cycles. |
Risk Analysis
Volatility
NAIL exhibits extreme historical volatility due to the 3x leverage mechanic, far exceeding standard equity benchmarks.
Market Risk
Risks include interest rate sensitivity, housing demand fluctuations, and supply chain constraints inherent to homebuilders.
What the ETF Owns
| Exposure Type | Exposure | Weight (%) | Retail Investor Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index — seeks 3x daily return | 95 | The fund provides concentrated exposure to the US homebuilding sector with a 3x daily leverage target. |
| Cash/collateral | Cash and Cash Equivalents | 5 | Cash holdings are maintained to collateralize derivative positions and manage daily liquidity. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type ETF | Historic Profit -7.47% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | ETF Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
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