Upturn provides various ways to identify stocks to invest in
Upturn's advisories are updated daily and you can use any of the following ways to identify interesting stocks to invest in
Browsing through Top Picks
Top Picks are 4 star and above stocks whose stock price has moved over 4% in the last 3 weeks
Choosing from Top Performers
Top Performers are 4 star and above stocks which have provided higher simulated returns in the last 2+ years
Following your Favorites Stocks
Browse through the universe of stocks from Nasdaq and NYSE and add your favorites to “Watchlist” to follow its advisories
Building "Advisories only" Robo-Portfolios
Through “Advisories only” Robo-Portfolios, you can create and manage multiple Instant Robo-portfolios or create custom Robo-portfolios
The all new “Advisories only” Robo-Portfolios
Through “Advisories only” Robo-Portfolios, you can create and manage multiple Instant Robo-portfolios or create custom Robo-Portfolios and Upturn will provide the ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ advisories for these stocks and ETFs through its adaptive AI technology.
You can use Upturn personas, Upturn Star rating, and Upturn’s detailed historic recommendations for these stocks to further filter out stocks when adding them to the Robo-portfolio.
You can create as many Robo-portfolios to compare and choose one or more you like.
Upturn provides a simulated portfolio analysis for every Robo-Portfolio created to show how the Robo-portfolio (hypothetical, equal-weighted stocks) performed compared to S&P 500 on various metrics, including statistics such as cumulative returns of the Robo-portfolio, annualized return, risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) amongst others and providing backtesting simulation over various periods of time (two-plus years, one year, 3 months and 1 month).
Upturn doesn’t execute “Buy” and “Sell” for Stocks. Users need to use a brokerage firm of their choice to Buy or Sell stocks and ETFs.
Watchlist
Your favorite stocks you want to track can be added to "Watchlist" to have a single list of all stocks you want to receive Upturn Advisories on.
Further, mobile notifications can be enabled on “Watchlist” to receive updates on your mobile for any advisory changes i.e., if any of the stocks within “Watchlist” either become a "Buy" or a "Sell". You can choose or consider to act on these recommendations, thus saving you precious time.
Today's Top Picks
Upturn updates the Top Picks list daily, enabling users to get a feel of the market pulse .
This is a fun way to discover new and interesting stocks curated by Upturn.
A Top Picks stock is defined here as those ‘Buy’ recommended stocks that have an Upturn star rating of 4 and above and for default persona "quarterly", and which has had more than 4% increase in the stock price within the last 3 weeks.
Top Performers
Upturn updates Top Performers list daily. Users who don't want to create Robo-portfolios can browse through “Top Performers” and "Top Picks" stocks to identify stocks they want to follow or invest in.
Top Performers page shows a sorted list of all the stocks which are Upturn Star rating 4 for default persona "quarterly", which has had amongst the highest historic returns, which is sum of their profits and unrealized profits based on simulated Upturn recommendations. These values are historic and are considered from a date that is typically over two years (beginning of the chart) and the simulation doesn’t account for tax on the returns. Please see disclousures.
Upturn Star Rating
Upturn provides an Upturn star rating for every persona of each stock and ETF to which it provides a recommendation.
By default, Upturn shows only the "quarterly" persona of the stock.
Upturn also provides an Upturn Star rating for every Robo portfolio created.
Upturn star rating for stocks and ETFs represents the simulated historic cumulative returns of the stock based on the Upturn’s "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations specific to each persona ("Long", "Quarterly", "Monthly” or “Rush”) along with multiple proprietary indicators showcasing how the stock performed recently. Upturn Star Rating for a stock is derived out of Upturn Advisory Performance for the stock and also the Stock Returns Performance along with how the stock has performed in recent times.
Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio represents the simulated historic cumulative returns of the Robo-portfolio based on the Upturn’s "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations performed along with the Sharpe ratio. Generally, an Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio of 3 has higher than or equal to a Sharpe ratio of 1, and an Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio of 4 and 5 has higher than or equal to a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 along with higher cumulative returns. Additional proprietary indicators are also considered in rating a Robo-Portfolio.
Currently, Upturn Star Rating doesn’t include the fundamental ratings of the company. A higher rating doesn’t imply better returns in the future but is an indicator of how the stock performed historically with Upturn's recommendations for them.
Please read Disclosures for more on Upturn Star Rating
Upturn Market Insights
Upturn Market Insights provide a macro view of how the market is performing in terms of how many stocks in Nasdaq and NYSE that have Upturn Star Rating of 3 star and above have a BUY recommendation
This chart also has SPY (S&P 500) overlaid for that date which shows how S&P 500 stocks were doing.
Upturn Insights indirectly indicates the health of the market, whether a bullish or a bear market.
The chart shows typically, the ‘Buy’ ratings start to reduce around and often times before the SPY is going down showcasing the ‘Sell’ recommendations were largely triggered much before the market down preventing huge drawdowns while on the other hand, when the market began to pick up, the ‘Buy’ counts are high, indicating catching the upturns of the market early.
Personas for Stocks
Upturn recommendations cater to different personas defined as how long on average the user wants to buy and hold the stock being considered. The holding period is the duration between a ‘Buy’ and the corresponding ‘Sell’ advisory.
This hold period is considered an average hold period when defining personas. Upturn currently defines 4 personas for the stock, providing recommendations of ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ catering to 4 different hold periods. These are defined as ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ in the detailed charts.
There are a different number of indicators used for each persona ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations which cater to different tolerance of stock price and volume movements which enable building different persona recommendations. Upturn uses over 50 plus ML and proprietary quantitative algorithms to provide these persona-specific recommendations.
It is quite common to have for the same stock, some personas saying ‘Buy’ while others could be ‘Not a Buy’ or even ‘Sell’. An average hold period of stock for a year or longer is called the persona ‘Long’. Some want to buy and sell stock more frequently, and this average hold period of 3-4 months is called persona ‘Quarterly’. An average hold period of a month or two is called persona 'Monthly'. An average hold period of a few weeks to a month is called persona ‘Rush’. New users might want to consider starting off with a ‘Quarterly’ persona for stocks and ETFs and then explore different personas as they get comfortable with personas. Quarterly is the default persona used in Upturn.
These hold periods being considered for personas are not absolute but average. In this sense, a ‘Sell’ after a ‘Buy’ recommendation could be triggered within a week itself if the indicators don’t hold for a ‘Long’ or a ‘Quarterly’ persona. Similarly, even for a ‘Rush’ persona, a ’Sell’ after a ‘Buy’ could be over 100 days if the indicators are strong. However, on average across the stocks, these hold periods smooth out.
Upturn App Quick Overview
Descriptions of terms and metrics
The following section describes performance metrics and terms used
Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.
Stocks and Stocks Chart (Simulated)
Following are terms and its definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations.
Note: The method of charting might change over time with implementation
Compounded Profits
This is simulated compounded returns expressed in percentage Compounded means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns was reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.
The compounded profits noted in the above chart takes into consideration the simulation of having reinvested the principal and returns for all the recommendations of the Company for that particular persona of the stock since the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, the date is chosen so that simulation data is longer than 2 years and is measured in percentage. The profits can be positive in case of a profit or could be negative in case of a loss. (The disclosures below provides details about the assumptions while calculating returns in a simulated transaction)[1]
Avg Profits (or Average Profits)
This takes the average of all the returns (profits and loss) expressed in a percentage for all the “BUY” recommendations or advisories through the period of the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, till the previous day's close. Some “BUY” recommendations might have a corresponding “SELL” recommendation which is called the “Realized returns” or might not have a “SELL” recommendation yet which is called “Unrealized returns”, i.e., this is calculated by the simulation which includes transactions which have completed a full “BUY” and “SELL” recommendation (also called realized profits or loss) and transactions which have had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet (also called the unrealized profit or loss) and average it over the total number of such transaction cycles. This is expressed in percentage. In short, this is the compounded profits by number of “BUYs”.
UnRealized (or Unrealized profits)
This is the profit (or loss) expressed as a percentage which has had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet. The stock with this is still a “BUY” recommendation and the “SELL” recommendation could come later point in time. From a simulation point of view, the stock is still bought and has not been sold and hence the returns are not yet realized.
Number of BUYs
This is the number of “BUY” recommendations from the Company in the simulation starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock with the corresponding persona. This “Number of BUYs” is what is shown in the graph for that particular stock for that specific persona for the simulation conducted.
Number of SELLs
This is the number of “SELL” recommendations from Upturn in the simulation starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock with the corresponding persona for its respective “BUY.”
Avg-Invested Days
This is the average number of days for the “Hold” period for the Company recommendations for the stock with the corresponding persona (Long, or Quarterly or Monthly) considering simulation starting from January 1, 2018. A "hold" period is the time duration when a stock goes from a "BUY" recommendation to a "SELL" recommendation. For the Avg-Invested Days, this also considers all the available “hold” periods along with any “hold” which is unrealized i.e., also considers the days were for a specific “BUY” there has not yet been a “SELL” and divides the entire number of days with “number of BUYs”.
Upturn Advisory Performance
This is a measure of how well Upturn advisory performed for this stock based on simulation. That is, what percentage of times when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL” did the simulation show a profit.
Stock Returns Performance
This is a measure of how well the stock returns performed with respect to Upturn advisory for the stock based on simulation. That is, what is the cumulative returns for the stock in terms of percentage when Upturn Advisory recommended a “BUY” and a corresponding “SELL”.
SELL (Profit) annotation
This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of Upturn recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a profit (i.e., positive return). Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation.
SELL (Loss) annotation
This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of the Company’s recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a loss or negative returns.
Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation
Buy Strength
"Buy" and "Sell" recommendations are based on many indicators from Upturn AI. "Buy Strength" is a measure of how strong does all the Buy indicators hold. When all the Buy indicators are true, the "Buy Strength" would be shown as 100%. When some of these Buy indicators are not true and some Sell indicators are true (but not necessary) and not all "Sell" indicator is true which still indicates the stock is still a "Buy" candidate, then the percentage of Buy indicators which are true and reducing it from sell indicators which are true is shown as "Buy Strength".
Robo-Portfolio (and Robo-Portfolio performance simulation charts and ratios)
Following are terms, definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations of a Robo-portfolio.
Here a Robo-portfolio or a portfolio is defined as a collection of stocks by a user to closely follow and trade. The user can choose a similar persona in the portfolio or mix and match each stock with different personas within a Robo-portfolio and a Robo-portfolio is not restricted to a specific persona alone.
Note: Please review the disclosures for assumptions and different considerations in a simulation or hypothetical returns and ratios. Keeping those assumptions into consideration, this section describes different performance metrics and terms used.[1]
The Robo-portfolio simulations are built by having each stock equally weighted into the Robo-portfolio (this is implemented by using the percentage of daily returns)[2] and uses the simulation of the portfolio starting from January 1, 2018. The simulation adds stock returns (positive in case of profits or negative in case of loss) to the portfolio as if the stocks executed a "BUY" or "SELL" based on the Company’s recommendations.
Note: Please read the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations
Upturn uses Python Empyrical library (or its close implementation)
https://github.com/quantopian/empyrical for the calculation of key ratios and performance metrics of the Portfolio simulation.
Following are the definitions of the key ratios and metrics used in the simulation
Cumulative Returns
This is simulated compounded returns expressed as a percentage of the Robo-portfolio. When this is shown in charts, the cumulative returns starts with a principal value of 1 (normalized value for charts) on January 1, 2018, and how if executed the "BUY" and "SELL" on each of the stocks (with the assumptions as discussed in Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations section below) performed. The charts also compare these cumulative returns with SPY (S&P SPDR 500 ETF). Compounded returns means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested in each stock of all the stocks in the portfolio, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns were reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.
Annualized Returns
This is the mean annual growth rate of returns of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
Sharpe Ratio
This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
Annual Volatility
This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
Alpha
This is the measure of the equally weighted simulated portfolio’s ability to beat the market or how does it compare to the market (here SPY is used to indicate market)
Beta
Alpha is typically measured along with beta which measures the overall market risk of the portfolio (here SPY is used to indicate market)
