Upturn provides various different ways to identify stocks to invest
Building new Robo-Portfolios
Following your Favorites Stocks
Browsing through Recent Movers
Browsing through Top Performers
Building new “Advisories only” Robo-Portfolios
Through “Advisories only” Robo-Portfolios, you can create and manage multiple Instant Robo-portfolios or create custom Robo-portfolios through screeners or directly adding stocks into a Robo-Portfolio.
You can use Upturn personas, Upturn Star rating, and Upturn’s detailed historic recommendations for these stocks to further filter out stocks when adding them to the Robo-portfolio. Upturn will provide the ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ advisories for these stocks and ETFs through its adaptive AI technology.
You can add as many numbers of stocks you want in a Robo-portfolio or even create as many Robo-portfolios to compare and choose one or more you like.
The Robo-portfolios can be updated or cloned any time and mobile notifications can be enabled separately for each Robo-Portfolios to receive any new updates or changes of ‘Buy’/’Sell’ for these stocks.
Upturn provides a simulated portfolio analysis for every Robo-Portfolio created to show how the Robo-portfolio (hypothetical, equal-weighted stocks) compared to S&P 500 on various metrics, including statistics such as cumulative returns of the Robo-portfolio, annualized return, risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio) amongst others backtracking over various periods of time (two-plus years, one year, 3 months and 1 month).
If any of the stocks within the portfolio have become either a "Buy" or a "Sell", the user can choose to act on these recommendations saving you precious time.
Upturn doesn’t execute “Buy” and “Sell” for Stocks. Users need to use a brokerage firm of their choice to Buy or Sell stocks.
Your favorite stocks you want to watch can be added to "My Favorites" to have a single list of all stocks you want to receive updates on.
This page also provides a global search to look up all stocks and their different personas. You can directly add these stocks to “My Favorites” or any Robo-Portfolio already created.
Further, mobile notifications can be enabled on “My Favorites” to receive updates on your mobile for any advisory changes i.e., if any of the stocks within “My Favorites” either become a "Buy" or a "Sell". You can choose or consider to act on these recommendations, thus saving you precious time.
Upturn updates the Recent Movers list daily, so users who don't want to create Robo-portfolios can browse through “Recent movers” stocks to identify stocks they want to follow or invest in.
A recent mover stock is defined here as those ‘Buy’ recommended stocks that have an Upturn star rating of 3 and above and which has had more than 4% increase in the stock price in less than 3 weeks.
This page provides an ordered list of all stocks based on how recent the recommendation to Buy was which holds true to the above definition. This list can be further sorted as the user wants by clicking on the column heading.
Upturn updates Top Performers list daily, so users who don't want to create Robo-portfolios can browse through “Top Performers ” stocks to identify stocks they want to follow or invest in.
Top Performers page shows a sorted list of all the stocks which are Upturn Star rating 3 and above with their respective persona which has had the highest historic returns which is sum of their profits and unrealized profits based on simulated Upturn recommendations. These values are historic and are considered from a date that is typically over two years (beginning of the chart) and the simulation doesn’t account for tax on the returns. Please see disclousures.
The same stock can appear multiple times for each persona of the stock indicating different persona recommendations of the stock were also top performing.
Upturn provides an Upturn star rating for every persona of each stock and ETF to which it provides a recommendation.
Upturn also provides an Upturn Star rating for every Robo-portfolio created.
Upturn star rating for stocks and ETFs represents the simulated historic cumulative returns of the stock based on the Upturn’s "Buy" and "Sell" recommendation specific to each of persona ("Long", "Quarterly", "Monthly” or “Rush”) along with multiple proprietary indicators showcasing how the stock performed recently than sometime in the past.
Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio represents the simulated historic cumulative returns of the Robo-portfolio based on the Upturn’s "Buy" and "Sell" recommendation performed along with the Sharpe ratio. Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio of 3 has higher than or equal to a Sharpe ratio of 1 and Upturn star rating for Robo-portfolio of 4 and 5 have higher than or equal to a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 along with higher cumulative returns.
Currently, Upturn Star Rating doesn’t include fundamental ratings of the company. A higher rating doesn’t imply better returns in the future but an indicator of how the stock performed historically with Upturn's recommendations for them.
Please read Disclosures for more on Upturn Star Rating
Upturn Insights give holistic metrics of Upturn advisories specific to each persona.
The Upturn Insights provides the total number of Upturn star rating of 3 and above stocks (in its pool of stocks under recommendations) which has had a “Buy” recommendation on the date. This chart also has SPY (S&P 500) overlaid for that date which shows how S&P 500 stocks were doing.
Upturn Insights indirectly indicates the health, whether a bullish or a bear market. Further, this also indicates how Upturn recommendations across stocks correspond to the market by also overlaying with the SPY.
The chart shows typically, the ‘Buy’ ratings start to reduce around and often times before the SPY is going down showcasing the ‘Sell’ recommendations were largely triggered much before the market down preventing huge drawdowns while on the other hand, when the market began to pick up, the ‘Buy’ counts are high, indicating catching the upturns of the market early.
Personas for Stocks
Upturn recommendations cater to different personas defined as how long on average the user wants to hold the stock being considered. The holding period is the duration between a ‘Buy’ and the corresponding ‘Sell’ advisory.
This hold period is considered as an average hold period when defining personas. Upturn currently defines 4 personas for the stock, providing recommendations of ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ catering to 4 different hold periods. These are defined as ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ in the detailed charts.
There are a different number of indicators used for each persona ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations which cater to different tolerance of stock price and volume movements which enable building different persona recommendations. Upturn uses over 50 plus AI/ML proprietary algorithms to provide these persona specific recommendations.
It is quite common to have for the same stock, some personas saying ‘Buy’ while others could be ‘Not a Buy’ or even ‘Sell’.
An average hold period of stock for a year or longer is called the persona ‘Long’.
Some want to buy and sell stock more frequently, and this average hold period of 3-4 months is called persona ‘Quarterly’.
An average hold period of a month or two is called persona 'Monthly'.
An average hold period of a few weeks to a month is called persona ‘Rush’.
New users might want to consider starting off with a ‘Quarterly’ persona for stocks and ETFs and then explore different personas as they get comfortable with personas.
These hold periods being considered for personas are not absolute but average. In the sense, a ‘Sell’ after a ‘Buy’ recommendation could be triggered within a week itself if the indicators don’t hold for a ‘Long’ or a ‘Quarterly’ persona. Similarly, even for a ‘Rush’ persona, a ’Sell’ after a ‘Buy’ could be over 100 days if the indicators are strong. However, on average across the stocks, these hold periods smooth out.
The shaded grey vertical bars in the chart indicate the holding period with the starting of ‘Buy’ to ‘Sell’.
As one can see, the ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ for AMD 'Long' persona is 131 days with 6 cycles of recommendations.
Here you can see some hold periods were over 1 year while others were less than a month.
Similarly for the 'Quarterly' persona, the ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ was 68 with some individual recommendations being very shorter and some longer than 68 days.
The 'Monthly' persona for this stock had ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ greater than two months and was 69 days while ‘Avg-Invested-Days’ for 'Rush' persona was 44 days.
These numbers can wary. The recommendations and the number of recommendations can greatly vary for the same stock under different recommendations.
Upturn App Quick Overview
Descriptions of terms and metrics
The following section describes performance metrics and terms used
Note: Please see the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations for assumptions and considerations used in the simulation (hypothetical) returns and ratios.
Stocks and Stocks Chart (Simulated)
Following are terms and its definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations.
Note: The method of charting might change over time with implementation
This is simulated compounded returns expressed in percentage Compounded means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns was reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.
The compounded profits noted in the above chart takes into consideration the simulation of having reinvested the principal and returns for all the recommendations of the Company for that particular persona of the stock since the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, the date is chosen so that simulation data is longer than 2 years and is measured in percentage. The profits can be positive in case of a profit or could be negative in case of a loss. (The disclosures below provides details about the assumptions while calculating returns in a simulated transaction)
Avg Profits (or Average Profits)
This takes the average of all the returns (profits and loss) expressed in a percentage for all the “BUY” recommendations or advisories through the period of the simulation start date of January 1, 2018, till the previous day's close. Some “BUY” recommendations might have a corresponding “SELL” recommendation which is called the “Realized returns” or might not have a “SELL” recommendation yet which is called “Unrealized returns”, i.e., this is calculated by the simulation which includes transactions which have completed a full “BUY” and “SELL” recommendation (also called realized profits or loss) and transactions which have had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet (also called the unrealized profit or loss) and average it over the total number of such transaction cycles. This is expressed in percentage. In short, this is the compounded profits by number of “BUYs”.
UnRealized (or Unrealized profits)
This is the profit (or loss) expressed as a percentage which has had a “BUY” recommendation without a corresponding “SELL” yet. The stock with this is still a “BUY” recommendation and the “SELL” recommendation could come later point in time. From a simulation point of view, the stock is still bought and has not been sold and hence the returns are not yet realized.
Number of BUYs
This is the number of “BUY” recommendations from the Company in the simulation starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock with the corresponding persona. This “Number of BUYs” is what is shown in the graph for that particular stock for that specific persona for the simulation conducted.
Number of SELLs
This is the number of “SELL” recommendations from Upturn in the simulation starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock with the corresponding persona for its respective “BUY.”
This is the average number of days for the “Hold” period for the Company recommendations for the stock with the corresponding persona (Long, or Quarterly or Monthly) considering simulation starting from January 1, 2018. A "hold" period is the time duration when a stock goes from a "BUY" recommendation to a "SELL" recommendation. For the Avg-Invested Days, this also considers all the available “hold” periods along with any “hold” which is unrealized i.e., also considers the days were for a specific “BUY” there has not yet been a “SELL” and divides the entire number of days with “number of BUYs”.
SELL (Profit) annotation
his is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of Upturn recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a profit (i.e., positive return). Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation.
SELL (Loss) annotation
This is for a “SELL” recommendation in the simulation of the Company’s recommendations starting from January 1, 2018, for the stock which ended in a loss or negative returns.
Note: Refer to Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations which goes into assumptions made in simulation
"Buy" and "Sell" recommendations are based on many indicators from Upturn AI. "Buy Strength" is a measure of how strong does all the Buy indicators hold. When all the Buy indicators are true, the "Buy Strength" would be shown as 100%. When some of these Buy indicators are not true and some Sell indicators are true (but not necessary) and not all "Sell" indicator is true which still indicates the stock is still a "Buy" candidate, then the percentage of Buy indicators which are true and reducing it from sell indicators which are true is shown as "Buy Strength".
Robo-Portfolio (and Robo-Portfolio performance simulation charts and ratios)
Following are terms, definitions and assumptions used when showing the Company’s historic recommendations of a Robo-portfolio.
Here a Robo-portfolio or a portfolio is defined as a collection of stocks by a user to closely follow and trade. The user can choose a similar persona in the portfolio or mix and match each stock with different personas within a Robo-portfolio and a Robo-portfolio is not restricted to a specific persona alone.
Note: Please review the disclosures for assumptions and different considerations in a simulation or hypothetical returns and ratios. Keeping those assumptions into consideration, this section describes different performance metrics and terms used.
The Robo-portfolio simulations are built by having each stock equally weighted into the Robo-portfolio (this is implemented by using the percentage of daily returns) and uses the simulation of the portfolio starting from January 1, 2018. The simulation adds stock returns (positive in case of profits or negative in case of loss) to the portfolio as if the stocks executed a "BUY" or "SELL" based on the Company’s recommendations.
Note: Please read the Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations
Upturn uses Python Empyrical library (or its close implementation)
https://github.com/quantopian/empyrical for the calculation of key ratios and performance metrics of the Portfolio simulation.
Following are the definitions of the key ratios and metrics used in the simulation
This is simulated compounded returns expressed as a percentage of the Robo-portfolio. When this is shown in charts, the cumulative returns starts with a principal value of 1 (normalized value for charts) on January 1, 2018, and how if executed the "BUY" and "SELL" on each of the stocks (with the assumptions as discussed in Disclosures for Performance Metrics and Simulations section below) performed. The charts also compare these cumulative returns with SPY (S&P SPDR 500 ETF). Compounded returns means, in the simulation, the assumption is, the user gained or lost x% returns on its initial principal invested in each stock of all the stocks in the portfolio, that entire principal plus (or minus) the returns were reinvested in the next set of recommendations. Returns can be negative or positive.
This is the mean annual growth rate of returns of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
This is the risk adjusted return of the equally weighted simulated portfolio
This is the measure of the equally weighted simulated portfolio’s ability to beat the market or how does it compare to the market (here SPY is used to indicate market)
Alpha is typically measured along with beta which measures the overall market risk of the portfolio (here SPY is used to indicate market)