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Upturn AI Summary - About
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company(ADM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ADM
10/08/2026: ADM (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is a major global player in agricultural processing and nutrition, serving as a critical bridge between farmers and the global food supply chain. The company has a leading position in commodity merchandising and has strategically expanded into higher-margin specialty ingredients, which supports its long-term growth story. Investors often value its status as a Dividend Aristocrat, providing consistent income. However, the business faces risks from volatile commodity cycles, geopolitical trade disruptions, and regulatory challenges that necessitate disciplined execution. ADM may suit income-focused and value-oriented investors who are comfortable with the cyclical nature of the global agricultural sector and monitoring ongoing operational and regulatory developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | ADM is a mature, cyclical company with moderate growth prospects tied to agricultural demand rather than rapid technology-driven expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock price is often influenced by external macroeconomic commodity cycles rather than consistent momentum-based trends. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its assets and long-term cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | A multi-decade history of annual dividend increases makes it a core holding for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the company's susceptibility to commodity price volatility and regulatory headlines can lead to short-term price swings. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Fluctuations in commodity prices directly impact processing margins and inventory valuation. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The stock often trades at valuations that reflect its long-term stability and mature nature. |
| Competition risk | Medium | Global grain merchandising faces fierce competition from large private entities and international players. |
| Business quality | Strong | The firm operates critical global food infrastructure that serves as a necessary backbone for food security. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The company has a highly reliable track record of paying and growing dividends over many decades. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing complex global supply chains and integrating large acquisitions requires consistent operational execution. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 4.38% | Avg. Invested days 50 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 39.20B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 22.53 | 1Y Target Price 80.4 |
Price to earnings Ratio 22.53 | 1Y Target Price 80.4 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.6M shares | Beta 0.63 | 52 Weeks Range 54.00 - 88.75 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 54.00 - 88.75 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.51% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.61 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Ag Services & Oilseeds | Global grain storage, transportation, and crushing operations. | The foundational part of the business that earns money by moving crops from where they grow to where they are needed. |
| Carbohydrate Solutions | Processing corn and wheat into sweeteners, starches, and ethanol. | A steady revenue stream serving the food and energy markets. |
| Nutrition | Specialty food ingredients, flavors, and animal feed products. | The growth segment focused on higher-margin, specialized ingredients for the human and animal health markets. |
| Geography | Operations spanning North America, South America, Europe, and Asia. | Global reach provides a buffer against localized harvest issues or regional economic downturns. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 22.53 | Forward PE 15.62 | Enterprise Value 47.84B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 |
Enterprise Value 47.84B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.58 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.34 | Shares Outstanding 481.96M | Shares Floating 477.84M |
Shares Outstanding 481.96M | Shares Floating 477.84M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.71 | Percent Institutions 88.93 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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