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Upturn AI Summary - About
ADTRAN Inc(ADTN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ADTN
11/12/2026: ADTN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
ADTRAN Inc is a global provider of networking and communications equipment that facilitates fiber-based broadband and high-capacity optical transport. The company’s primary strength lies in its commitment to open, disaggregated networking software, which enables carriers to deploy more flexible infrastructure. Its main growth opportunity is tied to massive global investments in fiber-to-the-premises and government-funded rural broadband projects. However, the company faces significant risks from cyclical telecommunications spending patterns, intense competition from much larger industry players, and the integration challenges of its recent merger. ADTRAN is generally suited for investors comfortable with the volatility inherent in infrastructure equipment cycles and long-term technology transitions.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company operates in a growth-oriented sector but faces significant cyclical and integration headwinds. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Current technical trends for the stock often reflect broader telecommunications infrastructure sector consolidation. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation may look attractive to some, but requires confidence in long-term earnings recovery. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are subject to the company's capital needs for R&D and debt management. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to telecommunications infrastructure cycles creates high earnings and price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is susceptible to swings in industry capital expenditure cycles. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuation depends on the successful realization of synergies from the ADVA merger. |
| Competition risk (Infrastructure Giants) | High | Major competitors have significantly larger scale and resources. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has established a stable, though cyclical, technology niche. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts depend on maintaining sufficient free cash flow during investment cycles. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successfully integrating two large organizations is complex and resource-intensive. |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 382.22M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 9.54 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 9.54 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta 1.56 | 52 Weeks Range 3.92 - 19.98 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 3.92 - 19.98 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.26 |
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector
Technology
Caution- Sentiment
- Near Bearish
- Momentum
- Rapid Breadth Deterioration
- BUY participation
- 30.1%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 37 / 123
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- -42
- Market state
- Weak Bullish / Near Bearish
BUY participation is falling rapidly, suggesting elevated market vulnerability.
Industry
Communication Equipment
- BUY participation
- 23.1%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 3 / 13
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- -2
Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 7.35% | Avg. Invested days 28 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Network Infrastructure | Fiber-access hardware including OLTs and ONTs. | The backbone of the company's revenue, driven by broadband deployment projects. |
| Optical Networking | High-capacity transport equipment for metro/data center connectivity. | Provides stable, long-term infrastructure demand from global telecom operators. |
| Enterprise Services | Wi-Fi and business networking solutions. | Offers diversified, smaller-scale revenue streams from enterprise clients. |
| Geography | Operations in North America, Europe, and Rest of World. | Global diversification helps mitigate local regulatory or economic risks. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-02 | When After Market | Estimate 0.04 | Actual 0.09 |
Profitability
Profit Margin -2.2% | Operating Margin (TTM) 0.07% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.04% | Return on Equity (TTM) -3.23% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 7.87 | Enterprise Value 556.66M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.34 |
Enterprise Value 556.66M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.34 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.49 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5 | Shares Outstanding 81.50M | Shares Floating 79.10M |
Shares Outstanding 81.50M | Shares Floating 79.10M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.65 | Percent Institutions 108.38 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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