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CDNA 
CareDx Inc (CDNA)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
11/05/2025: CDNA (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
8 Analysts rated it
Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.
1 Year Target Price $21.83
1 Year Target Price $21.83
| 4 | Strong Buy |
| 1 | Buy |
| 3 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -47.36% | Avg. Invested days 32 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 803.38M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 12.2 | 1Y Target Price 21.83 |
Price to earnings Ratio 12.2 | 1Y Target Price 21.83 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 8 | Beta 2.56 | 52 Weeks Range 10.96 - 26.37 | Updated Date 11/8/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 10.96 - 26.37 | Updated Date 11/8/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.28 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-11-04 | When - | Estimate -0.08 | Actual 0.28 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 19.68% | Operating Margin (TTM) -0.25% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -4.01% | Return on Equity (TTM) 24.11% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 12.2 | Forward PE 78.12 | Enterprise Value 632754908 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24 |
Enterprise Value 632754908 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.24 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.86 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -2.82 | Shares Outstanding 51432639 | Shares Floating 50031100 |
Shares Outstanding 51432639 | Shares Floating 50031100 | ||
Percent Insiders 3.81 | Percent Institutions 101.69 |
Upturn AI SWOT
CareDx Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
CareDx Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Brisbane, California. The company focuses on transplant patient care solutions, initially focusing on heart transplant diagnostics and expanding to other organ transplants. CareDx has grown through product innovation and acquisitions, becoming a leader in transplant monitoring.
Core Business Areas
- Transplant Diagnostics: Develops and commercializes non-invasive testing solutions for transplant recipients, including AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Kidney, and AlloSure Lung, to monitor organ health and detect rejection early.
- Transplant Care Solutions: Offers digital healthcare solutions and patient management tools to improve the transplant patient experience and optimize care delivery.
- Transplant Pharmaceutical: Manufactures and distributes immunosuppressant therapies to reduce the risk of transplant rejection.
Leadership and Structure
Regina Allgaier serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company operates with a functional organizational structure, with departments for R&D, Sales & Marketing, Operations, and Finance, reporting to the CEO.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- AlloSure Kidney: A donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) test used to monitor kidney transplant recipients for rejection. Competitors include Natera (Prospera) and Eurofins Viracor. CareDx claims a significant market share in kidney transplant monitoring, but precise figures are difficult to ascertain due to the competitive landscape. This accounts for the bulk of the revenue.
- AlloMap Heart: A gene expression test used to assess the risk of rejection in heart transplant recipients. Competitors include traditional biopsies and other emerging diagnostic technologies. The market share is gradually declining due to preference for dd-cfDNA technologies like AlloSure.
- AlloSure Lung: A donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) test used to monitor lung transplant recipients for rejection. Competitors include Natera and other emerging diagnostic technologies.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The transplant diagnostics industry is growing, driven by the increasing number of transplants performed globally and the need for non-invasive monitoring solutions. The shift towards personalized medicine and the development of advanced molecular diagnostics are key trends.
Positioning
CareDx Inc. is a leading player in the transplant diagnostics market, known for its AlloSure and AlloMap platforms. The company differentiates itself through its focus on innovation, comprehensive testing solutions, and digital healthcare offerings.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for transplant diagnostics is estimated to be in the billions of dollars. CareDx is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market due to its established presence and expanding product portfolio.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Leading position in transplant diagnostics
- Proprietary technology and intellectual property
- Established relationships with transplant centers
- Comprehensive product portfolio
- Strong brand recognition
Weaknesses
- Dependence on reimbursement policies
- Competition from larger diagnostic companies
- Historical overstatement of financials
- Relatively high cost of goods sold
- Sensitivity to regulatory changes
Opportunities
- Expanding into new transplant types (e.g., liver, pancreas)
- Developing new diagnostic and monitoring solutions
- Increasing adoption of digital healthcare solutions
- Geographic expansion
- Partnerships with pharmaceutical companies
Threats
- Increased competition from established and emerging players
- Changes in reimbursement policies
- Technological obsolescence
- Adverse regulatory changes
- Economic downturn affecting healthcare spending
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- NTRA
- TMO
- PKI
Competitive Landscape
CareDx has advantages in being a pioneer and having a focus in transplant diagnostics. Competitors, like Thermo Fisher and Natera, are larger with more resources but less specialization in transplant.
Major Acquisitions
TransChart
- Year: 2021
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 22
- Strategic Rationale: Acquisition of patient management technology to grow transplant franchise.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: CareDx has experienced rapid revenue growth in recent years, driven by the increasing adoption of its AlloSure and AlloMap tests. The company has also expanded through acquisitions and strategic partnerships.
Future Projections: Analysts predict continued revenue growth for CareDx, driven by the expanding transplant market and the increasing demand for non-invasive monitoring solutions. Future growth depends on successful product development and market penetration.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding the AlloSure platform to new transplant types, developing new digital healthcare solutions, and forming partnerships with pharmaceutical companies.
Summary
CareDx is a leading transplant diagnostics company with innovative products, but faces competition and relies on reimbursement policies. Its financial performance has been affected by previous overstatements of financials, but recent initiatives and growth in the transplant market offer opportunities. The company's dependence on transplant volumes and technological innovation necessitate vigilance. CareDx's ability to navigate these challenges will determine its long-term success.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- CareDx Inc. Investor Relations
- SEC Filings
- Analyst Reports
- Industry Research Reports
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market conditions and company performance can change rapidly. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About CareDx Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters South San Francisco, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2014-07-17 | President, CEO & Director Mr. John Walter Hanna Jr. | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Diagnostics & Research | Full time employees 644 | Website https://caredx.com |
Full time employees 644 | Website https://caredx.com | ||
CareDx, Inc. engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers in the United States and internationally. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company offers Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a surveillance solution that monitors the level of engraftment and persistence of allogeneic cells for patients who have received cell therapy transplants; and XynQAPI, a transplant quality tracking software, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
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