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CareDx Inc(CDNA)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CDNA
11/13/2026: CDNA (4-star) is a SELL. SELL for 1 day. Simulated Profits (265.81%). Updated daily EoD!
CareDx is a specialized diagnostics company providing testing services and digital software solutions to the transplant patient community. The company has a leading position in transplant surveillance with products like AlloSure, which forms the core of its revenue. Its growth story hinges on expanding non-invasive testing into additional organ types and increasing its recurring digital health footprint. However, investors must consider the significant risks stemming from intensive competition, fluctuating reimbursement policies, and a history of regulatory oversight. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance who are capable of monitoring the evolving reimbursement environment and management's execution of cost-efficiency initiatives.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company operates in a growth-oriented niche but faces significant regulatory and execution risks. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Current stock performance signals lack the strength required for momentum strategies. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Valuation is difficult to justify based on inconsistent earnings and profitability. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High price volatility and regulatory exposure make this unsuitable for low-risk profiles. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to sharp movements driven by reimbursement and regulatory news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Investors face risk if growth does not materialize to support current market expectations. |
| Competition risk (molecular diagnostics) | High | Competitors like Natera are aggressive in capturing transplant testing market share. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the core product niche is defensible, overall financial stability is currently challenged. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No income generation is provided for shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Successful growth depends on navigating complex reimbursement environments and clinical adoption. |
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.11B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 32.98 | 1Y Target Price 94.43 |
Price to earnings Ratio 32.98 | 1Y Target Price 94.43 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.4M shares | Beta 2.49 | 52 Weeks Range 15.15 - 90.87 | Updated Date 11/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 15.15 - 90.87 | Updated Date 11/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.37 |
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector
Healthcare
Bullish- Sentiment
- Strong Bullish
- Momentum
- Momentum Steady
- BUY participation
- 62.6%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 72 / 115
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- +35
- Market state
- Strong Bullish
The number of qualifying BUY stocks has remained relatively stable.
Industry
Diagnostics & Research
- BUY participation
- 68.8%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 11 / 16
- 30-Day BUY Count Change
- 0
Sector signal summarizes BUY breadth conditions for the sector. It does not override this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 162.36% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Testing Services | AlloSure and AlloMap testing revenue. | The primary revenue driver is the volume of diagnostic tests performed for transplant patients. |
| Digital & Other | Software solutions (OTTR) and services for transplant centers. | This segment provides recurring software revenue to support clinic efficiency. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 0.07 | Actual 0.7 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 25.86% | Operating Margin (TTM) 1.57% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.91% | Return on Equity (TTM) 33.04% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 32.98 | Forward PE 71.43 | Enterprise Value 3.97B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.24 |
Enterprise Value 3.97B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.24 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.13 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 145.31 | Shares Outstanding 52.54M | Shares Floating 50.81M |
Shares Outstanding 52.54M | Shares Floating 50.81M | ||
Percent Insiders 3.08 | Percent Institutions 99.24 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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