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CareDx Inc (CDNA)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
01/09/2026: CDNA (1-star) is a SELL. SELL since 2 days. Simulated Profits (14.88%). Updated daily EoD!
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
8 Analysts rated it
Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.
1 Year Target Price $23
1 Year Target Price $23
| 4 | Strong Buy |
| 1 | Buy |
| 3 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -45.17% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 01/09/2026 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 916.57M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 13.45 | 1Y Target Price 23 |
Price to earnings Ratio 13.45 | 1Y Target Price 23 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 8 | Beta 2.49 | 52 Weeks Range 10.96 - 25.95 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 10.96 - 25.95 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.28 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 19.68% | Operating Margin (TTM) -0.25% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -4.01% | Return on Equity (TTM) 24.11% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 13.45 | Forward PE 71.94 | Enterprise Value 719097043 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.56 |
Enterprise Value 719097043 | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.56 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.01 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -2.82 | Shares Outstanding 51432639 | Shares Floating 50043443 |
Shares Outstanding 51432639 | Shares Floating 50043443 | ||
Percent Insiders 3.79 | Percent Institutions 101.81 |
Upturn AI SWOT
CareDx Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
CareDx Inc. was founded in 2014 and spun off from its parent company, AlloCure. The company is a leader in transplant diagnostics, providing solutions to improve patient outcomes throughout the transplant journey. Significant milestones include the development and commercialization of its flagship product, AlloSure, a blood-based test that measures donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) to monitor kidney transplant health.
Core Business Areas
- Transplant Diagnostics: CareDx develops and commercializes innovative solutions for organ transplant patients. This includes blood-based tests for monitoring organ health and rejection, HLA typing, and other diagnostic tools to support the entire transplant lifecycle, from pre-transplant to post-transplant management.
- Pre-Transplant Solutions: Services and products aimed at improving the pre-transplant evaluation process, including HLA typing to assess immune compatibility between donor and recipient, and screening for infectious diseases.
- Post-Transplant Management Solutions: A comprehensive suite of diagnostic tools designed to monitor transplant recipients after surgery, detect early signs of rejection or organ dysfunction, and guide treatment decisions. This includes blood-based dd-cfDNA testing and other biomarkers.
Leadership and Structure
CareDx is led by a management team with expertise in diagnostics, biotechnology, and healthcare. The company operates with a focus on research and development, clinical validation, and commercialization of its diagnostic platforms.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- AlloSureu00ae Kidney: A proprietary blood test that measures donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) to provide a quantitative assessment of kidney transplant health. It helps clinicians detect early signs of kidney transplant dysfunction and rejection. Competitors include tests offered by Natera (Prospera), One Lambda (Immunity Status) and potentially other emerging dd-cfDNA assays. Market share for dd-cfDNA monitoring in kidney transplants is growing, with CareDx being a significant player. Revenue from AlloSure has been a key driver for the company.
- AlloMapu00ae Heart: A gene expression profiling test used to assess the risk of cellular rejection in adult heart transplant recipients. It helps clinicians differentiate between rejection and other causes of abnormal heart transplant status. Competitors include endomyocardial biopsy, which is the current standard of care for suspected rejection. AlloMap has established market presence in heart transplant monitoring.
- HLA Typing and Donor-Specific Antibody (DSA) Testing: Services and reagents used for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing to match donors and recipients, and for detecting DSAs, which are antibodies that can lead to transplant rejection. Competitors include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Immucor, and Abbott.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The transplant diagnostics market is driven by the increasing number of organ transplants performed globally, the rising prevalence of organ failure, and advancements in diagnostic technologies. There is a growing demand for non-invasive and molecular diagnostic tools to improve transplant outcomes and reduce complications.
Positioning
CareDx is a leading innovator in the transplant diagnostics space, particularly with its non-invasive dd-cfDNA testing for kidney transplants. The company has established a strong presence in the transplant community and a robust sales and distribution network. Its focus on a comprehensive suite of solutions across the transplant continuum provides a competitive advantage.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for transplant diagnostics is substantial and growing. Estimates vary, but the global market for transplant diagnostics is projected to reach several billion dollars in the coming years, driven by increasing transplant volumes and the adoption of advanced diagnostic tools. CareDx is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this market with its specialized offerings.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Pioneering non-invasive dd-cfDNA testing for kidney transplant monitoring (AlloSure).
- Established market presence and strong relationships with transplant centers.
- Comprehensive product portfolio covering pre- and post-transplant needs.
- Proprietary technologies and intellectual property.
- Experienced management team.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few key products for revenue.
- Potential for reimbursement challenges for new diagnostic tests.
- Competition from established diagnostic companies and emerging players.
- High R&D investment requirements.
Opportunities
- Expansion of AlloSure and AlloMap into new transplant types and geographic regions.
- Development of new diagnostic markers and platforms for transplant monitoring.
- Strategic partnerships and acquisitions to broaden product offerings or market reach.
- Increasing adoption of molecular diagnostics in healthcare.
- Growing awareness of the benefits of personalized medicine in transplantation.
Threats
- Intensifying competition from other diagnostic companies.
- Changes in reimbursement policies by payers.
- Regulatory hurdles for new product approvals.
- Potential for breakthrough alternative technologies.
- Economic downturns impacting healthcare spending.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
- Natera (NTRA)
- One Lambda (a Thermo Fisher Scientific brand)
- Immucor (part of a larger conglomerate)
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Competitive Landscape
CareDx holds a strong position in the niche market of transplant diagnostics, especially in kidney transplant monitoring with AlloSure. Its advantage lies in its specialized focus and innovative non-invasive testing. However, it faces competition from larger, diversified diagnostic companies with broader product portfolios and significant R&D budgets. Differentiation through clinical utility, physician adoption, and reimbursement is critical.
Major Acquisitions
MediBeacon
- Year: 2023
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 100
- Strategic Rationale: To acquire complementary diagnostic technologies, potentially expanding CareDx's portfolio in organ health monitoring beyond transplantation.
Xenoworks
- Year: 2021
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 70
- Strategic Rationale: To enhance its position in HLA typing and immunogenetics, further strengthening its pre-transplant solutions.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: CareDx has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past several years, largely attributed to the increasing adoption of its transplant diagnostic solutions, particularly AlloSure for kidney transplants.
Future Projections: Analyst projections typically indicate continued revenue growth for CareDx, driven by market penetration of existing products, expansion into new transplant areas, and potential development of new diagnostic solutions. The increasing volume of transplants and the shift towards personalized medicine support positive growth outlooks.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives likely include expanding the sales force, increasing marketing efforts, pursuing regulatory approvals in new markets, and investing in R&D for next-generation diagnostics. Strategic partnerships and collaborations are also key initiatives.
Summary
CareDx Inc. is a strong player in the specialized field of transplant diagnostics, with a leading position in non-invasive monitoring for kidney transplants. Its innovative products like AlloSure and AlloMap are driving growth, and the company has a clear strategy for market expansion. However, it faces significant competition and relies heavily on its core offerings, making continued R&D investment and market penetration crucial for sustained success. Potential threats from evolving technologies and reimbursement changes require careful monitoring.
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Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- CareDx Inc. Investor Relations Filings (SEC)
- Company Press Releases
- Industry Market Research Reports
- Financial News and Analysis Platforms
Disclaimers:
This JSON output is generated for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial data and market share estimates are subject to change and may vary depending on the source and reporting period. Users should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About CareDx Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters South San Francisco, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2014-07-17 | President, CEO & Director Mr. John Walter Hanna Jr. | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Diagnostics & Research | Full time employees 644 | Website https://caredx.com |
Full time employees 644 | Website https://caredx.com | ||
CareDx, Inc. engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers in the United States and internationally. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company offers Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a surveillance solution that monitors the level of engraftment and persistence of allogeneic cells for patients who have received cell therapy transplants; and XynQAPI, a transplant quality tracking software, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
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