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Upturn AI Summary - About
Carlyle Group Inc(CG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CG
11/05/2026: CG (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Carlyle Group Inc is a leading global alternative asset manager that provides investment strategies across private equity, credit, and investment solutions. The firm's strengths lie in its deep market expertise and a robust platform that provides consistent management fee revenue. A primary growth opportunity involves capturing private wealth capital and expanding its scale in the credit markets. Key risks include exposure to macroeconomic volatility, cyclical performance fee revenue, and intense competition from larger alternative asset peers. The stock may suit investors seeking long-term growth in the alternative sector, provided they can tolerate the inherent volatility and complexity of the investment business model.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Carlyle offers exposure to the growing alternative asset sector, but its earnings growth is tied to cyclical market realizations. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find value during periods of high market activity and strong exit performance in the private equity space. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock can appear attractively valued during market downturns, but the complexity of private equity accounting makes fair value assessment difficult. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Carlyle provides a relatively consistent dividend yield, making it suitable for income-oriented portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock is subject to high volatility due to macroeconomic sensitivity and the nature of the asset management industry. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Share prices fluctuate significantly with market cycles and exit successes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The complexity of alternative asset valuations can lead to market disconnects. |
| Competition risk (Asset Management) | High | Intense competition from larger incumbents limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | Strong recurring management fee streams underpin the franchise. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are reliable but can be affected by the firm's cyclical performance fees. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful growth depends on integrating new credit and wealth strategies. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 35.08% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 15.23B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 44.07 | 1Y Target Price 51.47 |
Price to earnings Ratio 44.07 | 1Y Target Price 51.47 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.4M shares | Beta 1.83 | 52 Weeks Range 35.41 - 65.91 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 35.41 - 65.91 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.42% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.97 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Management Fees | Fixed percentage fees charged on committed or invested capital from institutional and retail clients. | This is the 'sticky' recurring revenue that provides the company's base level of income. |
| Performance Fees (Carried Interest) | Share of profits generated from investment exits above a certain return threshold. | This component is highly cyclical and drives large spikes in earnings when the company successfully sells assets. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.99 | Actual 1.12 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 13.01% | Operating Margin (TTM) 26.86% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.03% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.77% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 44.07 | Forward PE 7.82 | Enterprise Value 29.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.45 |
Enterprise Value 29.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.45 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 10.38 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.05 | Shares Outstanding 356.33M | Shares Floating 258.60M |
Shares Outstanding 356.33M | Shares Floating 258.60M | ||
Percent Insiders 26.38 | Percent Institutions 64.79 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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