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Upturn AI Summary - About
Carlyle Group Inc(CG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CG
10/08/2026: CG (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Carlyle Group Inc is a leading global alternative asset manager that provides investment services across private equity, credit, and investment solutions. The company is known for its extensive institutional investor network and a growing focus on private credit and wealth management channels. Its primary growth opportunity lies in capturing the shift toward alternative assets among individual investors, while risks include market volatility, competitive pressures on fee structures, and the impact of interest rates on deal exits. The stock may suit investors seeking long-term exposure to the private markets, provided they can tolerate the firm's cyclical exposure. Investors should monitor developments in exit activity and new fee-earning initiatives.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers growth potential through the expansion of private credit and wealth management channels. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on market trends supporting private equity exit activity and improved fundraising. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The firm may appeal to value investors due to the potential for cash flow generation through management fees. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Carlyle provides a reliable dividend stream which is attractive for income-oriented portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | As a financial services firm exposed to market volatility, it carries higher risk than defensive dividend stocks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Market sentiment toward private equity significantly influences the stock price. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Future growth expectations are baked into the valuation, requiring consistent performance. |
| Competition risk (Alternative asset management) | High | Stiff competition from larger managers limits pricing power and deal access. |
| Business quality | Strong | The firm has a long-standing, globally recognized reputation in alternative assets. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts can fluctuate based on the realization of carried interest. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the leadership's ability to pivot toward new growth segments like private wealth. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 35.08% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 13.47B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 38.97 | 1Y Target Price 54.89 |
Price to earnings Ratio 38.97 | 1Y Target Price 54.89 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.3M shares | Beta 1.87 | 52 Weeks Range 37.09 - 65.91 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 37.09 - 65.91 | Updated Date 10/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.60% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.97 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Private Equity | Management and performance fees from buyout and growth funds. | The core profit engine of the firm. |
| Credit | Fees from direct lending and liquid credit strategies. | A growing, stable revenue source for the firm. |
| Investment Solutions | Secondary market and co-investment management fees. | Provides diversified fee income. |
| Geography | Global operations across North America, Europe, and Asia. | Global exposure mitigates local economic risks. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 38.97 | Forward PE 7.63 | Enterprise Value 27.65B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.82 |
Enterprise Value 27.65B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.82 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 10.26 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.05 | Shares Outstanding 356.33M | Shares Floating 258.60M |
Shares Outstanding 356.33M | Shares Floating 258.60M | ||
Percent Insiders 26.42 | Percent Institutions 64.84 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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