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Upturn AI Summary - About
Centerra Gold Inc(CGAU)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CGAU
11/06/2026: CGAU (4-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Centerra Gold Inc is a mid-tier, Canada-based mining company specializing in gold and copper production. Following its major divestiture of the Kumtor mine, the company has transformed into a more focused operator with a primary asset base in North America. Its main strengths include a robust balance sheet and operations in politically stable jurisdictions. However, its reliance on a limited number of mines creates operational concentration risk, and financial performance remains highly sensitive to commodity price volatility. The stock may best suit investors seeking commodity exposure through an experienced producer, though they should monitor production targets and long-term exploration success.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential through operational improvements rather than rapid, aggressive expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on the prevailing gold price cycle and technical breakouts in the stock price. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at valuations that reflect asset-based book values and a strong cash position. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are available but fluctuate based on commodity cycles and capital reinvestment needs. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The inherent volatility of gold prices and single-asset operational risks make this unsuitable for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The company's revenue is directly tied to fluctuations in gold and copper prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward gold miners can lead to significant swings in the stock's valuation relative to net asset value. |
| Competition risk (Major Gold Producers) | Medium | Larger competitors have greater scale, allowing for lower costs and broader geographic diversification. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has strong financial health but a reliance on a limited number of operating assets. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are not guaranteed and are sensitive to operational cash flow volatility. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Maintaining stable output at complex mines like Mount Milligan is critical for meeting financial guidance. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 89.89% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.21B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.04 | 1Y Target Price 16 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.04 | 1Y Target Price 16 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.3M shares | Beta 1.62 | 52 Weeks Range 11.25 - 24.52 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 11.25 - 24.52 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.94% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.17 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Mount Milligan Mine | Gold and copper concentrate production from this BC-based asset. | The primary revenue engine for the company. |
| Öksüt Mine | Gold production from heap-leaching processes in Turkey. | A key secondary cash-flow contributor. |
| Geography | Mining operations in Canada, the United States, and Turkey. | Diversification reduces reliance on any single political or regulatory regime. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 0.33 | Actual 0.37 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 23.67% | Operating Margin (TTM) 22.16% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 16.26% | Return on Equity (TTM) 20.83% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.04 | Forward PE 11.79 | Enterprise Value 3.89B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.3 |
Enterprise Value 3.89B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.3 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.13 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.13 | Shares Outstanding 193.50M | Shares Floating 193.01M |
Shares Outstanding 193.50M | Shares Floating 193.01M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.16 | Percent Institutions 93.97 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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