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Calumet Specialty Products Partners(CLMT)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL RECENCY
4-STAR RATING
STRONG BUY
BUY for 2 days
PROFIT SINCE LAST BUY
-2.3% ▼
LAST CLOSE
$56.42
10/09/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
  • ALL
  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CLMT

10/09/2026: CLMT (4-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 2 days. Simulated Profits (-2.30%). Updated daily EoD!

Calumet Specialty Products Partners is a mid-cap energy company operating as a master limited partnership, focusing on a diverse portfolio of specialty hydrocarbon products and performance lubricants. Its primary investment story centers on the successful transition of its legacy refinery assets into high-growth renewable fuel production, particularly Sustainable Aviation Fuel. While the company holds a strong niche position, it faces substantial risks including high leverage, exposure to commodity price volatility, and execution risks related to the renewable fuels rollout. This stock may suit investors seeking exposure to the green energy transition within the energy sector, though it remains a volatile asset. Investors should closely monitor debt reduction progress and renewable production metrics.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe potential for significant growth in the renewable fuels segment offers upside, though it is balanced by energy industry cyclicality.
Momentum investorMixed fitMomentum traders may find the stock attractive during shifts in renewable energy sentiment, provided the technical uptrend remains intact.
Value investorStrong fit while signal remains positiveThe company may be attractive to value investors looking for a turnaround story centered on the transition to sustainable energy assets.
Dividend investorMixed fitDistributions can be irregular or subject to suspension depending on the company's capital expenditure requirements for growth projects.
Low-risk investorWeak fitThe stock's inherent volatility, leverage, and commodity exposure make it unsuitable for investors seeking low-risk profiles.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighAs a specialty refiner, the company's margins fluctuate significantly with raw material costs and commodity fuel price changes.
Valuation riskMediumThe market's perception of the renewable fuels business can lead to rapid re-ratings in the valuation of the units.
Competition risk (Commodity/Renewable)HighLarge integrated energy players can out-compete the company in scale and capital access.
Business qualityMediumWhile the specialty products business is high quality, the legacy refining asset base introduces complexity.
Dividend incomeMedium / highDistributions are not guaranteed and are secondary to capital investment and debt servicing needs.
Execution riskHighThe successful ramp-up of the Montana Renewables facility is crucial for the company's long-term profitability.

Price Behavior

Strong Uptrend
PRICE PATH

Strong Uptrend

The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 29.5%
Avg. Invested days 37
Today’s Advisory Strong Buy
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 3.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 10/09/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
CLMT receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid company fundamentals. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
CLMT has solid overall fundamentals (4 stars), with moderate financial health, solid growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong earnings growth (+84.8%) is partially offset by soft cash generation (FCF margin 1.4%), slightly negative revenue growth (-1.2%), weak profitability (net margin -0.8%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
CLMT's financial health is supported by moderate cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation (1.4% of revenue). Profitability is soft (2 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Free-cash-flow growth is CLMT's strongest growth driver at +146.0% FY2025 versus FY2024 (strong, 5 stars). By comparison, earnings growth (+84.8%, strong) is also strong, while revenue growth (-1.2%, slightly negative) holds the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 51.9% and approximately 68.5% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 20.15% supports management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

Two Seas Capital LP 6.78%
BlackRock Inc 5.95%
Wasserstein Debt Opportunities Management LP 4.51%
State Street Corp 3.95%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 3.93%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
CLMT generates approximately $59 of gross profit, $13 of operating income, and $14 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Weak margins explain the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and weak capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 73.26%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
CLMT has a liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Valuation that is moderately attractive rather than deeply discounted is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Low VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 4.96B USD
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 53.4
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 53.4
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares
Beta 0.78
52 Weeks Range 17.45 - 59.87
Updated Date 10/11/2026
52 Weeks Range 17.45 - 59.87
Updated Date 10/11/2026
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) -1.55

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Specialty ProductsSolvents, waxes, and specialty oils sold to industrial and retail clients.This is the company's bread-and-butter business, providing steady, high-margin revenue.
Renewable FuelsSustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Renewable Diesel.This is the growth engine of the company, focused on the global shift toward cleaner energy.
Performance BrandsRoyal Purple and Bel-Ray lubricants.This segment leverages brand loyalty to capture retail and specialized industrial market spend.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE -
Forward PE 49.02
Enterprise Value 6.93B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.08
Enterprise Value 6.93B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.08
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.51
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 88.74
Shares Outstanding 87.90M
Shares Floating 60.25M
Shares Outstanding 87.90M
Shares Floating 60.25M
Percent Insiders 20.15
Percent Institutions 51.91

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

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