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Upturn AI Summary - About
Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc(COLL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COLL
10/13/2026: COLL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Collegium Pharmaceutical is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of pain management therapies. The company is known for its expertise in abuse-deterrent technology, which serves as a core competitive advantage for its main product, Xtampza ER. Recent strategic acquisitions, including Belbuca and Nucynta, have broadened its revenue base and scaled its commercial platform. While the firm has a leading position in niche pain segments, it faces significant risks from generic competition, regulatory oversight, and product concentration. It may best suit value-oriented investors focused on cash flow, though the lack of a dividend and industry-specific legal risks should be carefully monitored.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company's growth is tied to the lifecycle management of existing assets rather than high-octane innovation cycles. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly sensitive to regulatory news cycles and M&A developments in the specialty pharma space. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often evaluated based on cash flow consistency relative to its market valuation. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently maintain a regular dividend payout strategy. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Regulatory and legal risks inherent in the pain medication market create significant volatility for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is susceptible to rapid changes based on legal and regulatory updates in the opioid space. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment shifts frequently regarding the long-term sustainability of the company's core pain portfolio. |
| Competition risk (Generic competition) | High | Generic entry directly impacts the market share and pricing power of key branded products. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has built a specialized and efficient commercial platform, though it operates in a challenging market segment. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not rely on the stock for recurring income through dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Future success depends on the effective management of the acquired brand portfolio and regulatory compliance. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 35.32% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 717.69M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.36 | 1Y Target Price 49 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.36 | 1Y Target Price 49 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 870.7K shares | Beta 0.73 | 52 Weeks Range 21.43 - 50.79 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 21.43 - 50.79 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.27 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Pain Management Portfolio | Revenue from sales of Xtampza ER, Belbuca, and Nucynta. | The company primarily generates cash by selling prescription pain medications. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.36 | Forward PE 3.43 | Enterprise Value 1.70B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.89 |
Enterprise Value 1.70B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.89 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.1 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.38 | Shares Outstanding 32.56M | Shares Floating 29.77M |
Shares Outstanding 32.56M | Shares Floating 29.77M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.15 | Percent Institutions 130.98 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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