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Upturn AI Summary - About
Diversified Energy Company plc(DEC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for DEC
11/02/2026: DEC (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Diversified Energy Company plc is a specialized US-based producer that focuses on acquiring and managing mature, low-decline natural gas and oil wells. The company's main strength lies in its vertical integration and ability to extract value from end-of-life assets that larger producers often divest. Its primary investment story centers on consistent, long-term cash flow generation and dividend payments. However, risks remain significant, particularly regarding high corporate debt, sensitivity to fluctuating natural gas prices, and the long-term financial obligation of plugging wells. The stock may suit income-focused investors who can tolerate commodity price volatility, provided they monitor the company’s ongoing efforts to reduce debt and improve operational efficiency.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is focused on mature, slow-growth assets rather than high-growth exploration plays. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum potential is conditional on positive upturns in natural gas prices and successful debt reduction milestones. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations reflective of its asset-heavy nature and consistent cash flow. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company explicitly targets cash returns to shareholders as a core component of its investment proposition. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High leverage and exposure to commodity price volatility make it unsuitable for conservative, low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenues are highly sensitive to natural gas market fluctuations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The market's view on the sustainability of the dividend can lead to significant price swings. |
| Competition risk (commodity production) | Medium | The company must compete for acquisitions against well-capitalized peers. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model relies on efficiently managing thousands of small, aging wells. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividend security depends on commodity prices and disciplined debt management. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Acquiring and integrating legacy assets requires constant operational precision. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 8.53% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 996.90M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 2.32 | 1Y Target Price 20.43 |
Price to earnings Ratio 2.32 | 1Y Target Price 20.43 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 662.2K shares | Beta 0.35 | 52 Weeks Range 11.61 - 18.17 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 11.61 - 18.17 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 7.94% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.22 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas Production | Extraction and sale of natural gas from mature assets in Appalachia and Central US. | The primary income comes from selling natural gas extracted from old wells that don't need expensive new drilling. |
| Midstream Operations | Ownership of gathering and transport infrastructure. | The company saves money and gains efficiency by owning the pipes that move its gas to buyers. |
| Geography | Operations spanning Appalachian and Central US regions. | Revenue is entirely US-based, making the company sensitive to domestic gas markets. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 0.78 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 23.31% | Operating Margin (TTM) 83.65% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 5.41% | Return on Equity (TTM) 53.72% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 2.32 | Forward PE 4.81 | Enterprise Value 3.95B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.51 |
Enterprise Value 3.95B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.51 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.03 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.63 | Shares Outstanding 69.04M | Shares Floating 68.88M |
Shares Outstanding 69.04M | Shares Floating 68.88M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.64 | Percent Institutions 87.41 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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