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Upturn AI Summary - About
Encore Capital Group Inc(ECPG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ECPG
11/05/2026: ECPG (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Encore Capital Group is a specialty finance company focused on purchasing and recovering defaulted consumer debt in the U.S. and Europe. Its primary strength lies in advanced data analytics and significant scale, which help in effectively managing large debt portfolios. The main investment story centers on the company's ability to capitalize on consumer credit cycles to acquire portfolios at favorable prices. However, investors must consider risks related to regulatory changes, macroeconomic sensitivity, and the high-leverage nature of the business. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who understand the cyclical nature of credit markets and are monitoring developments in debt supply and consumer protection regulation.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to cyclical supply of consumer debt rather than linear innovation. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can exhibit strong momentum during periods of high credit default cycles. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock is often valued based on the discounted cash flow of its purchased portfolios, providing a value proposition. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a regular dividend to shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The business model is subject to significant regulatory and macroeconomic risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price fluctuates significantly based on economic cycles and regulatory sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations are heavily dependent on the accuracy of portfolio liquidation estimates. |
| Competition risk (debt purchasing) | Medium / high | Intense bidding for quality portfolios can compress margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business depends on recurring portfolio supply rather than proprietary intellectual property. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide income to investors via dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on effective and compliant debt recovery strategies. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 8.86% | Avg. Invested days 41 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.12B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.58 | 1Y Target Price 117 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.58 | 1Y Target Price 117 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 227.5K shares | Beta 1.31 | 52 Weeks Range 46.80 - 126.74 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 46.80 - 126.74 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 13.19 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Debt Purchasing | Buying non-performing loans at a discount. | They buy bad debt for pennies on the dollar and try to collect more than they paid. |
| Geography: North America | Midland Credit Management operations. | The largest portion of their revenue comes from the US market. |
| Geography: Europe | Cabot Credit Management operations. | They have a significant secondary revenue stream from the European market. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 3.45 | Actual 5.57 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 15.86% | Operating Margin (TTM) 38% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.34% | Return on Equity (TTM) 30.54% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.58 | Forward PE 5.54 | Enterprise Value 6.12B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.11 |
Enterprise Value 6.12B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.11 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.22 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.68 | Shares Outstanding 21.21M | Shares Floating 20.57M |
Shares Outstanding 21.21M | Shares Floating 20.57M | ||
Percent Insiders 3.9 | Percent Institutions 110.24 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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