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Upturn AI Summary - About
Ferguson Plc(FERG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FERG
11/11/2026: FERG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Ferguson Plc is a prominent distributor of plumbing, HVAC, and waterworks products, primarily serving professional contractors in North America. The company has successfully pivoted to a pure-play model, leveraging a vast branch network and digital tools to maintain a leading industry position. Its primary investment story centers on capturing share in a fragmented market through disciplined tuck-in acquisitions and service-led growth. Key risks include exposure to cyclical construction markets and interest rate fluctuations, which can impact demand. Ferguson often appeals to investors seeking dividend income and stable exposure to the US construction economy, provided they can monitor cyclical indicators and the effectiveness of its digital transformation efforts.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to cyclical construction markets rather than rapid secular expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on the cyclical upturn in the US housing and infrastructure sectors. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at valuations reflective of its industrial nature and stable cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Ferguson provides a consistent dividend payout that appeals to income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | Cyclical exposure to construction markets can lead to periods of stock price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Construction cycles and interest rate sensitivity cause stock fluctuations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must weigh the company's cyclical nature against its long-term cash flow profile. |
| Competition risk (Distributor consolidation) | Medium / high | Intense competition from national and local players pressures margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | Ferguson maintains a high-quality operational footprint and market-leading position. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Income is stable but contingent on maintaining operational profitability. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully integrating tuck-in acquisitions is vital for long-term growth. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 3.75% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/11/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector snapshot as of 2026-11-10
Sector
Industrials
- Signal
- Constructive
- Sentiment
- Weak Bullish
- Market state
- Weak Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 33.3%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 26 / 78
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +7
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Industrial Distribution
- BUY participation
- 100.0%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 3 / 3
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +1
Eligible universe: 3 stocks.
The sector signal does not change this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 50.19B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 24.59 | 1Y Target Price 290.09 |
Price to earnings Ratio 24.59 | 1Y Target Price 290.09 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares | Beta 1.11 | 52 Weeks Range 212.13 - 268.59 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 212.13 - 268.59 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 10.55 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Residential Plumbing & HVAC | Supply of piping, fixtures, and cooling units for residential builders. | Profit comes from high-volume supply of essential home-building materials. |
| Commercial & Waterworks | Large-scale infrastructure supplies for public and private construction. | Steady revenue generated from essential municipal and commercial infrastructure projects. |
| Geography: North America | United States and Canada market operations. | Success is directly tied to the health of the North American construction economy. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-09 | When Before Market | Estimate 3.28 | Actual 3.43 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 6.04% | Operating Margin (TTM) 9.83% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 9.77% | Return on Equity (TTM) 33.4% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 24.59 | Forward PE 20.24 | Enterprise Value 56.90B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.56 |
Enterprise Value 56.90B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.56 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.82 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.04 | Shares Outstanding 193.45M | Shares Floating 193.02M |
Shares Outstanding 193.45M | Shares Floating 193.02M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.17 | Percent Institutions 103.44 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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