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Upturn AI Summary - About
Graham Corporation(GHM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GHM
10/28/2026: GHM (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Graham Corporation is a specialized industrial manufacturer known for providing critical vacuum and heat transfer equipment to the energy, chemical, and defense sectors. Its core strength lies in deep engineering capabilities and a trusted, long-term position as a supplier to the U.S. Navy. The primary growth story is centered on the multi-year cycle of defense and nuclear spending, which provides stable revenue visibility. However, the company faces risks from cyclical energy demand and potential execution hurdles on complex projects. While not typically viewed as a dividend play, Graham suits investors seeking exposure to U.S. defense infrastructure; stakeholders should closely monitor backlog trends and defense budget legislation for signs of continued strength.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to cyclical industrial and defense spending cycles rather than hyper-growth secular trends. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find opportunity during periods of rising defense budget backlogs and positive market sentiment. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation depends heavily on the project backlog and cycle timing, which can make consistent valuation difficult. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The dividend is secondary to capital requirements for projects and growth, making it less suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to cyclical swings and project volatility makes this stock riskier than a conservative utility or blue-chip equity. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is susceptible to sharp movements based on project announcements and defense contract cycles. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing can fluctuate significantly based on short-term backlog shifts. |
| Competition risk (Defense/Industrial) | Medium | Facing larger, more diversified industrial competitors in specialized bidding processes. |
| Business quality | Medium | While technically strong, the project-based business model results in inherently lumpy earnings. |
| Dividend income | Low | Not designed to be a primary source of reliable, high-yield income. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully executing complex, long-term engineering projects is critical for profitability. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 121.96% | Avg. Invested days 43 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 833.56M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 66.37 | 1Y Target Price 125.6 |
Price to earnings Ratio 66.37 | 1Y Target Price 125.6 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 237.9K shares | Beta 1.08 | 52 Weeks Range 52.57 - 125.82 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 52.57 - 125.82 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.07 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Defense and Aerospace | Specialized pumps, cooling systems, and critical hardware for nuclear submarines and aerospace vehicles. | This is a high-barrier-to-entry segment that provides stable, long-term contract-based revenue. |
| Refining and Chemical Process | Vacuum systems, heat exchangers, and ejectors for energy and chemical manufacturing plants. | Revenue here is more cyclical and sensitive to global industrial investment and energy commodity prices. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.43 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 4.53% | Operating Margin (TTM) 6.63% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.21% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.49% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 66.37 | Forward PE 35.71 | Enterprise Value 781.13M | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.19 |
Enterprise Value 781.13M | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.19 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.99 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 33.6 | Shares Outstanding 11.74M | Shares Floating 11.18M |
Shares Outstanding 11.74M | Shares Floating 11.18M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.05 | Percent Institutions 97.71 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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