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Upturn AI Summary - About
Hilltop Holdings Inc(HTH)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for HTH
10/30/2026: HTH (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Hilltop Holdings is a diversified financial services firm offering commercial banking, mortgage origination, and capital market advisory services. Its strength lies in its balanced model, which combines stable banking operations with fee-based revenue from public finance. The primary growth opportunity involves optimizing digital banking and expanding advisory services, though this is tempered by sensitivity to mortgage market cycles and intense regional competition. Key risks include exposure to interest rate volatility and the cyclical nature of housing markets, which can impact earnings. The stock may suit dividend-oriented and value-conscious investors looking for exposure to mid-sized financial players, provided they monitor interest rate trends and credit quality.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company's growth is largely mature and cyclical rather than explosive. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on interest rate trends and housing market cycles. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at reasonable multiples relative to its book value and earnings power. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company maintains a consistent dividend policy suitable for income-oriented investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | Exposure to mortgage and commercial real estate risks creates moderate volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Market sentiment toward bank stocks and interest rate expectations drives price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The stock is typically priced in line with regional banking peers, limiting extreme downside. |
| Competition risk (banking and mortgage) | High | Aggressive competition from fintechs and large national lenders threatens margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | Diversification helps, but the core businesses are highly cyclical. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends depend on profitability, which fluctuates with the economic cycle. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing multiple complex business segments requires effective operational oversight. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -22.43% | Avg. Invested days 43 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.11B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 15.47 | 1Y Target Price 41 |
Price to earnings Ratio 15.47 | 1Y Target Price 41 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 322.5K shares | Beta 0.89 | 52 Weeks Range 31.07 - 40.14 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 31.07 - 40.14 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.15% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.4 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | Interest income from commercial and consumer loans and deposit services. | This is the steady, traditional bank part of the business. |
| Mortgage Origination | Fees earned from originating and selling residential mortgage loans. | This segment is highly sensitive to home buying trends and interest rates. |
| Financial Advisory | Advisory and underwriting fees for municipal and corporate clients. | This provides non-interest income based on market and public finance activity. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-22 | When After Market | Estimate 0.64 | Actual 0.44 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 11.39% | Operating Margin (TTM) 11.76% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.92% | Return on Equity (TTM) 6.73% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 15.47 | Forward PE 13.5 | Enterprise Value 2.75B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.7 |
Enterprise Value 2.75B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.7 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.23 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 56.79M | Shares Floating 37.70M |
Shares Outstanding 56.79M | Shares Floating 37.70M | ||
Percent Insiders 32.97 | Percent Institutions 57.78 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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