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Upturn AI Summary - About
MEDIFAST INC(MED)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MED
09/25/2026: MED (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Medifast Inc. is a health and wellness company primarily known for its OPTAVIA brand, which utilizes an independent coach-led model to provide weight management programs. The company historically achieved growth through this direct-selling platform, successfully building a loyal customer base. Currently, Medifast faces significant challenges as consumers shift toward pharmaceutical GLP-1 weight-loss alternatives, impacting demand for traditional diet programs. Its primary investment story hinges on whether the company can successfully pivot its business model to remain relevant in a medically-influenced weight-loss market. The stock may interest value-oriented investors monitoring business stabilization, though high volatility and intense competitive headwinds make it a cautious play for many.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | Current growth trajectory is challenged by significant market shifts toward pharmaceutical alternatives. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock lacks the positive momentum signal typically sought by this style. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation may appear attractive to some, but requires confidence in business model stabilization. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend sustainability depends heavily on the company's ability to maintain earnings during this transition period. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and competitive headwinds make this unsuitable for risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock has experienced significant price swings reflecting changing market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Uncertainty regarding future earnings makes valuation multiples difficult to justify. |
| Competition risk (GLP-1/Medical) | High | The rapid rise of medical weight-loss solutions is a primary existential risk. |
| Business quality | Medium | The reliance on a direct-selling coach model faces structural challenges in the current retail environment. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Future dividend payments are subject to board approval and financial performance. |
| Execution risk | High | Turning around the business model amidst intense competition requires flawless execution. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -38.21% | Avg. Invested days 20 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 136.07M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 12 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 12 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 119.6K shares | Beta 0.73 | 52 Weeks Range 9.22 - 14.15 | Updated Date 09/26/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.22 - 14.15 | Updated Date 09/26/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -2.33 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| OPTAVIA Program | Sale of proprietary Fuelings and subscription-based access to the coaching network. | The company relies on customers consistently purchasing branded food products while participating in a coach-led support program. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 12.48 | Enterprise Value 642.84K | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.43 |
Enterprise Value 642.84K | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.43 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.01 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 0.05 | Shares Outstanding 11.18M | Shares Floating 8.44M |
Shares Outstanding 11.18M | Shares Floating 8.44M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.33 | Percent Institutions 75.34 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About MEDIFAST INC
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters Baltimore, MD, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1993-12-31 | CEO & President Mr. Nicholas M. Johnson | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Personal Services | Full time employees 380 | Website https://medifastinc.com |
Full time employees 380 | Website https://medifastinc.com | ||
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions for weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, amino acid blends, whey protein, hot beverages, brownies, and mini meals under the Essential Fuelings, OPTAVIA ASCEND, and OPTAVIA ACTIVE categories, as well as daily nutrient packs, including multivitamins, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acid supplements. It also provides lifestyle plans, which provides a targeted reset of the body's metabolism by activating strong and targeted fat burn; Optimal Weight 4 & 2 & 1 Plan and Optimal Weight 4 & 2 ACTIVE Plan, which is designed for clients who want to continue eating all food groups or want a flexible meal plan to achieve a healthy weight; OPTAVIA Optimization Plan, a personalized approach to help clients' long-term weight management; and OPTAVIA GLP-1 Nutrition Support Plan, a nutritional companion to GLP-1 medication that allows clients to focus on weight loss. In addition, the company offers metabolic synchronization, a science that reverses metabolic dysfunction through a targeted reset of the body's metabolism. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform. The company serves health and wellness consumers. The company was formerly known as Healthrite, Inc. and changed its name to Medifast, Inc. in May 2001. Medifast, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
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