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Upturn AI Summary - About
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc(NBIX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NBIX
10/23/2026: NBIX (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Neurocrine Biosciences is a specialized biopharmaceutical company that has established a leading position in the treatment of neurological and endocrine disorders. Its primary growth is driven by the consistent commercial success of Ingrezza, a medication for movement disorders, and an expanding pipeline of new therapeutic candidates. While the company has historically strong margins and a robust cash position, its heavy reliance on a single primary drug remains a key risk factor for investors. The company is likely best suited for growth-oriented investors comfortable with the volatility inherent in the biotechnology sector. Key developments to monitor include future pipeline readouts and market expansion efforts.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company has a consistent track record of revenue growth and a promising late-stage pipeline. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Strong commercial execution often keeps the stock attractive to momentum strategies. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock often trades at a premium valuation typical of high-growth biotech companies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and reinvests all capital. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Biotech stocks are inherently volatile due to clinical and regulatory risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Biotech stocks can swing significantly based on clinical data releases and regulatory outcomes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Investors pay for future growth, which carries the risk of valuation compression if growth targets are missed. |
| Competition risk (Teva) | Medium | Direct competition from established pharmaceutical companies can impact market share and pricing. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a proven commercial engine and a sustainable financial position. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not expect income from dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the company's ability to navigate clinical trials and regulatory pathways for new indications. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.36% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 14.51B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 20.92 | 1Y Target Price 206.22 |
Price to earnings Ratio 20.92 | 1Y Target Price 206.22 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.4M shares | Beta 0.4 | 52 Weeks Range 122.14 - 186.12 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 122.14 - 186.12 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.82 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Product Sales | Revenue generated from the sale of Ingrezza and other commercialized therapies. | The vast majority of money comes from doctors prescribing their primary drug, Ingrezza. |
| Collaboration and Licensing | Revenue from licensing agreements and milestone payments. | Small portions of income come from strategic partnerships with other drug companies. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-02 | When After Market | Estimate 1.99 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 20.91% | Operating Margin (TTM) 22.19% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 11.7% | Return on Equity (TTM) 22.09% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 20.92 | Forward PE 14.12 | Enterprise Value 14.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.3 |
Enterprise Value 14.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.3 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.28 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.65 | Shares Outstanding 101.65M | Shares Floating 100.35M |
Shares Outstanding 101.65M | Shares Floating 100.35M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.06 | Percent Institutions 103.63 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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