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Upturn AI Summary - About
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.(NLY)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NLY
10/28/2026: NLY (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is a major mortgage real estate investment trust that primarily invests in agency mortgage-backed securities to generate income. The company has a leading position in the mREIT sector, benefiting from scale, institutional-grade risk management, and a diversified portfolio that includes residential credit. Its main opportunity lies in navigating interest rate cycles to maintain net interest margins, making it a potentially strong fit for dividend-focused investors. However, the company faces material risks, including high sensitivity to interest rate volatility and potential book value erosion. Investors should carefully monitor Fed policy, mortgage spreads, and the company’s ability to manage leverage effectively over time.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | Annaly is structured for income distribution rather than high capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock is highly sensitive to interest rate macro shifts, creating tactical trading windows. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock often trades relative to its book value, offering value potential if priced at a significant discount. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Annaly is primary suited for income-focused portfolios due to its history of recurring dividend payments. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's use of leverage and sensitivity to macro economic factors creates significant volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price fluctuates significantly based on interest rate expectations and Fed policy. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must monitor the price-to-book value ratio to avoid overpaying relative to assets. |
| Competition risk (mREIT sector) | Medium | Aggressive competition for MBS assets can compress yields across the industry. |
| Business quality | Medium | As a large-scale manager, Annaly maintains institutional-grade operations but remains subject to market cycles. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividend payouts depend on net interest income, which can be unstable in volatile interest rate environments. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful management of complex hedging strategies is essential to preserving book value. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 23.35% | Avg. Invested days 56 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 13.82B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 12.74 | 1Y Target Price 21.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 12.74 | 1Y Target Price 21.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 13.1M shares | Beta 1.28 | 52 Weeks Range 17.70 - 23.03 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 17.70 - 23.03 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 15.88% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.44 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | The difference between interest earned on mortgage assets and the cost of borrowing funds to finance them. | The company earns money by borrowing short-term at lower rates and lending long-term in mortgage markets at higher rates. |
| Asset Management & Securitization | Fees and gains from managing residential and commercial credit portfolios. | Revenue is also generated from the performance and active management of various mortgage-related credit investments. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-20 | When After Market | Estimate 0.77 | Actual 0.8 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 80.27% | Operating Margin (TTM) 107.33% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.84% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.35% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 12.74 | Forward PE 5.85 | Enterprise Value 140.38B | Price to Sales(TTM) 9.93 |
Enterprise Value 140.38B | Price to Sales(TTM) 9.93 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 41.94 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 753.71M | Shares Floating 783.31M |
Shares Outstanding 753.71M | Shares Floating 783.31M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.1 | Percent Institutions 59.92 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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