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Upturn AI Summary - About
NMI Holdings Inc(NMIH)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NMIH
10/23/2026: NMIH (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NMI Holdings is a specialized private mortgage insurance provider that has built a robust business by focusing on high-quality, post-crisis loan portfolios. Its main strength lies in a modern, scalable technology platform and a clean balance sheet, allowing it to maintain strong underwriting margins. The company's growth story is centered on its ability to capture market share within the US housing market through disciplined, risk-based pricing. Key risks include the cyclical nature of mortgage originations and macroeconomic housing sensitivities, which can influence credit performance. NMI Holdings is well-suited for growth and value investors who monitor housing market health and management's capital allocation strategies.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | NMIH has demonstrated consistent double-digit growth in its core insurance-in-force business. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Price performance often tracks broader housing sector sentiment and interest rate trends. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at reasonable multiples relative to its book value and earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently pay a cash dividend. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business quality is high, the stock is subject to volatility linked to macroeconomic housing risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic housing outlooks. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuation is often tied to market cycles which can lead to rapid repricing. |
| Competition risk (Mortgage Insurance) | Medium | Intense competition from established players may pressure pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company benefits from a high-quality, post-crisis loan portfolio and efficient operations. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Income-focused investors will not find dividend yield here. |
| Execution risk | Low | The company has demonstrated disciplined underwriting and operational consistency. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -9.16% | Avg. Invested days 39 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.20B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.38 | 1Y Target Price 48.88 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.38 | 1Y Target Price 48.88 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 893.3K shares | Beta 0.56 | 52 Weeks Range 34.84 - 46.74 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 34.84 - 46.74 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.08 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Insurance | Premiums collected for insuring residential mortgage loans against borrower default. | The company earns money by charging lenders fees to guarantee mortgage loans. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.38 | Forward PE 7.38 | Enterprise Value 3.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.38 |
Enterprise Value 3.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.38 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.74 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 75.22M | Shares Floating 73.91M |
Shares Outstanding 75.22M | Shares Floating 73.91M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.58 | Percent Institutions 101.31 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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