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Novavax Inc(NVAX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NVAX
09/15/2026: NVAX (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Novavax Inc is a biotechnology company specializing in protein-based vaccine technology, primarily known for its COVID-19 vaccine. The company's recent strategic partnership with Sanofi represents a major step in bolstering its commercial reach and financial stability. Its primary growth opportunity lies in the potential success of its combination COVID-19 and influenza vaccine candidates. However, investors face notable risks including intense competition from mRNA manufacturers, historical manufacturing execution hurdles, and a reliance on volatile vaccine demand. Novavax is best suited for growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance who are closely monitoring clinical trial developments and partnership milestones.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers potential high growth through its pipeline but carries significant execution and market risks. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock is highly sensitive to news flow and regulatory catalysts, attracting momentum traders during positive cycles. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The lack of consistent profitability and volatile cash flows makes it unsuitable for traditional value investing. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Novavax does not pay dividends and focuses on growth-stage clinical development. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and operational uncertainty make this stock unsuitable for conservative or low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is subject to dramatic swings based on clinical results and government purchasing decisions. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuations are heavily based on future product success rather than current earnings, creating significant downside risk. |
| Competition risk (mRNA platforms) | High | Established players with mRNA technology have significant market share and resources that challenge Novavax's product adoption. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company is transitioning from a clinical-stage firm to a commercial entity, resulting in inconsistent business quality metrics. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend income is provided to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Historical challenges in manufacturing and scaling production represent a primary risk to commercial success. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -54.25% | Avg. Invested days 21 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/15/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.52B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 14 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 14 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 5.0M shares | Beta 2.45 | 52 Weeks Range 6.20 - 11.97 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 6.20 - 11.97 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.53 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Product Sales | Revenue generated from the sale of Nuvaxovid and other authorized vaccines to governments and private buyers. | Revenue is heavily dependent on vaccine purchase orders. |
| Grants and Collaborations | Funding from government bodies and commercial partners to support R&D activities. | This provides non-dilutive capital but is often project-specific and temporary. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 2.58 | Enterprise Value 1.16B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.68 |
Enterprise Value 1.16B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.68 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.8 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 1.72 | Shares Outstanding 164.95M | Shares Floating 142.52M |
Shares Outstanding 164.95M | Shares Floating 142.52M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.06 | Percent Institutions 68.66 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Novavax Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Gaithersburg, MD, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1995-12-05 | President, CEO & Director Mr. John Charles Jacobs M.B.A. | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Biotechnology | Full time employees 749 | Website https://www.novavax.com |
Full time employees 749 | Website https://www.novavax.com | ||
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
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