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Upturn AI Summary - About
Novartis AG ADR(NVS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NVS
10/16/2026: NVS (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Novartis is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm that focuses on developing innovative, patent-protected medicines to address significant healthcare challenges. The company has successfully transformed its business by divesting lower-margin divisions like generics, now focusing on high-growth areas such as oncology and immunology. This shift is designed to improve margins and long-term growth potential through advanced research. Key risks include the competitive landscape of drug development, patent cliffs, and ongoing regulatory pressures on global pricing. Novartis may suit value-oriented and dividend-seeking investors who prefer the defensive nature of the pharmaceutical industry and are monitoring the company’s progress in building its specialized, next-generation drug pipeline.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company's focus on innovative, high-growth medicine platforms aligns with capital appreciation goals. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum appeal depends on positive clinical trial results or regulatory approvals driving share price momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Novartis often trades at reasonable multiples relative to its long-term cash flow potential. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company offers a reliable and steady dividend yield attractive to income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The defensive nature of the pharmaceutical sector provides relative stability during market volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Pharmaceutical stocks can fluctuate based on news of trial outcomes or government pricing policies. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Changes in interest rates or market sentiment can impact the valuation of large-cap pharma equities. |
| Competition risk (Generic and Biosimilar) | High | Patent cliffs allow competitors to erode revenue from major products. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses a deep pipeline and strong operational structure in specialized medicine. |
| Dividend income | Strong | A commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends is a central pillar of their policy. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The company must successfully navigate the complex drug development lifecycle to maintain growth. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 25.13% | Avg. Invested days 63 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/16/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 286.29B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 22.75 | 1Y Target Price 154.65 |
Price to earnings Ratio 22.75 | 1Y Target Price 154.65 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.2M shares | Beta 0.47 | 52 Weeks Range 117.98 - 165.43 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 117.98 - 165.43 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.15% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.62 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Innovative Medicines | Revenue from patented prescription medicines for oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular diseases. | The company makes the vast majority of its money selling life-saving patented drugs. |
| Geography | Revenue generated across the US, Europe, Asia, and other international markets. | The business is globally diversified, which helps balance risk across different regulatory environments. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 22.75 | Forward PE 14.71 | Enterprise Value 313.60B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.05 |
Enterprise Value 313.60B | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.05 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.53 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.97 | Shares Outstanding 1.90B | Shares Floating 1.86B |
Shares Outstanding 1.90B | Shares Floating 1.86B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.01 | Percent Institutions 7.26 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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