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Upturn AI Summary - About
Orange County Bancorp Inc(OBT)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OBT
10/19/2026: OBT (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Orange County Bancorp Inc is a regional bank holding company centered on community-based commercial and consumer banking services in New York. The bank is recognized for its strong relationship-focused service model and a diversified revenue base that includes fee-based wealth management. Its primary growth story revolves around organic lending expansion and potential market consolidation in the Northeast. However, it faces significant risks from regional economic concentration, interest rate sensitivity, and intense competition from much larger, more digitized banking rivals. It is a stable-income-focused investment that may suit value-oriented and dividend-seeking investors who should monitor credit quality and interest rate trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential characteristic of regional banks rather than high-growth momentum. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum potential is limited and conditional on regional economic cycles and interest rate sentiment. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations reflective of tangible book value and regional banking fundamentals. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable dividend stream suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The conservative, relationship-based business model offers stability compared to higher-risk growth equities. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Regional bank stocks can be sensitive to market-wide interest rate expectations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Changes in interest rate policy can impact the valuation multiples of regional financial institutions. |
| Competition risk (regional banking) | Medium / high | Strong competition for deposits and loans from larger players limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The firm benefits from a stable, established brand in its core markets. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are generally stable but tied to the bank's earnings performance. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on managing credit risk and maintaining loan quality in changing economic conditions. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -26.43% | Avg. Invested days 41 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/19/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 498.64M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.45 | 1Y Target Price 43.33 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.45 | 1Y Target Price 43.33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 64.7K shares | Beta 0.43 | 52 Weeks Range 22.74 - 39.91 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 22.74 - 39.91 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.82% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.56 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on commercial and retail loans minus interest paid on deposits. | The primary way the bank makes money is by collecting more interest on loans than it pays to depositors. |
| Fee-Based Services | Trust, wealth management, and banking service fees. | This provides a steady, non-interest stream of income that helps offset reliance on loan interest. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.45 | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 198.32M | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.06 |
Enterprise Value 198.32M | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.06 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.23 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 13.41M | Shares Floating 11.37M |
Shares Outstanding 13.41M | Shares Floating 11.37M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.19 | Percent Institutions 55.16 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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