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Upturn AI Summary - About
Outset Medical Inc(OM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OM
10/09/2026: OM (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Outset Medical is a medical technology company specializing in the Tablo Hemodialysis System, designed to simplify dialysis for both clinical and home settings. The company's primary strength lies in the portability and user-friendly design of its platform, which addresses key pain points in traditional, complex dialysis care. The major growth opportunity involves expanding its footprint in the under-penetrated home hemodialysis market. However, Outset faces significant risks, including intense competition from large established players, ongoing execution challenges, and the need to achieve sustained profitability. This stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high volatility while monitoring the company's ability to scale operations and improve margins.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers high-growth potential in the dialysis space but carries significant execution risk. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Momentum interest is conditional on sustained positive earnings momentum and stock price growth trends. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company is not currently valued based on traditional value metrics due to its growth-stage, loss-making status. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and focuses entirely on growth capital expenditure. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and operational risks make this stock unsuitable for conservative, low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to significant swings based on clinical, regulatory, and market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuation is sensitive to future growth projections that may be impacted by execution challenges. |
| Competition risk (incumbent medical firms) | High | Outset faces intense pressure from large, well-capitalized incumbents in the dialysis space. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology is innovative, the company is still building the necessary scale and profitability profile. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividends are expected in the near to medium term. |
| Execution risk | High | Success depends on effectively scaling operations and securing market share against larger competitors. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -56.25% | Avg. Invested days 14 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  1.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 76.88M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 7.67 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 7.67 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 189.5K shares | Beta 1.99 | 52 Weeks Range 2.84 - 15.94 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 2.84 - 15.94 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -4 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Tablo System Sales | Capital sales of the Tablo Hemodialysis machine. | Revenue from the initial sale of equipment to hospitals and clinics. |
| Recurring Revenue | Consumables, service contracts, and software licensing. | Long-term revenue generated as customers continue to use the system. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 15.53M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.65 |
Enterprise Value 15.53M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.65 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.13 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -0.24 | Shares Outstanding 18.80M | Shares Floating 14.77M |
Shares Outstanding 18.80M | Shares Floating 14.77M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.46 | Percent Institutions 75.2 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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