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Upturn AI Summary - About
PagSeguro Digital Ltd(PAGS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PAGS
10/16/2026: PAGS (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd is a prominent Brazilian fintech company providing a dual ecosystem of payment processing and digital banking services. The company has a leading position among micro-merchants and has successfully expanded its footprint by integrating PagBank financial services to capture more customer value. While it benefits from a large user base and a growing suite of credit offerings, it faces intense competitive pressure from other fintech leaders and traditional banks. The investment story centers on the company's ability to cross-sell banking products to its merchants. Key risks include credit quality in its loan portfolio and the impact of the Brazilian economic cycle on financial performance.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers exposure to the fast-growing Brazilian fintech market but faces significant competitive and macroeconomic headwinds. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can exhibit high beta and respond significantly to positive sentiment regarding Brazilian economic indicators. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation may appear attractive relative to growth, but credit risks make it a complex value proposition. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The combination of emerging market risk and sector-specific volatility creates a high-risk profile. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock's exposure to the Brazilian real and local market sentiment causes significant daily price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market perception of fintech margins often creates valuation fluctuations. |
| Competition risk (Fintech competition) | High | Aggressive pricing from competitors like MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings threatens margin expansion. |
| Business quality | Medium | The transition from a pure payment processor to a bank introduces complex credit and regulatory challenges. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend payout, providing no income cushion for investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | The company must successfully manage credit risk in its loan portfolio to maintain long-term profitability. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -14.81% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/16/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.03B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.75 | 1Y Target Price 11.59 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.75 | 1Y Target Price 11.59 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.1M shares | Beta 1.24 | 52 Weeks Range 8.17 - 11.68 | Updated Date 10/17/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.17 - 11.68 | Updated Date 10/17/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 10.18% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.42 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction Services | Merchant payment processing fees and rental of POS devices. | This is the company's core business of helping merchants accept card payments. |
| Financial Services | Net interest income from credit, PagBank services, and prepaid cards. | This is the newer, banking-focused side that aims to capture more value from customers. |
| Geography: Brazil | The entirety of the company's operations are concentrated in Brazil. | Investing in this company is a direct bet on the Brazilian consumer and business economy. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.75 | Forward PE 6.17 | Enterprise Value 10.46B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.15 |
Enterprise Value 10.46B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.15 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.59 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5.93 | Shares Outstanding 155.19M | Shares Floating 140.95M |
Shares Outstanding 155.19M | Shares Floating 140.95M | ||
Percent Insiders 4 | Percent Institutions 73.62 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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