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Upturn AI Summary - About
Provident Financial Services Inc(PFS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PFS
11/06/2026: PFS (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 3 days. Simulated Profits (-2.38%). Updated daily EoD!
Provident Financial Services Inc is a long-standing regional bank primarily serving the New Jersey and New York metropolitan area. The company has a stable reputation in commercial lending and retail banking, and it has recently sought to enhance its competitive scale through major acquisitions like Lakeland Bancorp. Its primary investment story revolves around organic growth, dividend reliability, and the potential for increased efficiency from recent mergers. However, the company faces risks from geographic concentration, regional economic cycles, and intense competition for deposits. It is best suited for value and dividend-focused investors who monitor the bank's integration of acquisitions and its interest rate sensitivity.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company focuses on steady, moderate growth through acquisitions rather than aggressive, high-multiple scaling. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Banking stocks often trade on cyclical and macro factors rather than pure momentum signals. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations that reflect stable book value and earnings power typical of regional banks. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Provident Financial has a long history of paying consistent dividends, making it suitable for income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the company is subject to interest rate and economic volatility inherent in the regional banking sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Financial stocks are sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic reports. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The company typically trades in line with tangible book value, limiting extreme downside risk. |
| Competition risk | Medium / high | Intense competition from regional and national banks puts pressure on deposit costs. |
| Business quality | Medium | The franchise is well-established but faces challenges in scaling profitably in a crowded market. |
| Dividend income | Medium | The safety of the dividend depends on ongoing earnings stability. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully integrating recent acquisitions remains a priority for achieving projected synergies. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 26.28% | Avg. Invested days 51 | Today’s Advisory Regular Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.99B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 9.65 | 1Y Target Price 27.83 |
Price to earnings Ratio 9.65 | 1Y Target Price 27.83 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 878.6K shares | Beta 0.81 | 52 Weeks Range 17.16 - 25.25 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 17.16 - 25.25 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.05% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.38 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on loans and securities minus interest paid on deposits. | This is the core profit driver, essentially the spread between what they earn on loans and pay on deposits. |
| Non-Interest Income | Service charges, wealth management fees, and loan origination fees. | These are fee-based revenues that help diversify income beyond just interest rate spreads. |
| Geography | Concentrated in New Jersey and New York. | Performance is heavily tied to the economic health of the tri-state regional economy. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 0.6 | Actual 0.53 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 33.98% | Operating Margin (TTM) 44.72% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.22% | Return on Equity (TTM) 11.02% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 9.65 | Forward PE 9.02 | Enterprise Value 5.55B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.28 |
Enterprise Value 5.55B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.28 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 130.42M | Shares Floating 126.32M |
Shares Outstanding 130.42M | Shares Floating 126.32M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.78 | Percent Institutions 77.24 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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