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Upturn AI Summary - About
Star Gas Partners LP(SGU)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for SGU
10/30/2026: SGU (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Star Gas Partners LP is a retail distributor of home heating oil and propane, operating primarily in the Northeast United States. The company benefits from a stable, recurring revenue model tied to essential residential heating needs, often bundled with profitable HVAC service contracts. Its core growth strategy involves acquiring and integrating regional dealers to build route density in its operating territories. However, investors face significant risks from the long-term secular shift toward home electrification, which threatens the demand for its primary fuel products. The stock is best suited for income-focused investors who understand the seasonal nature of the business and monitor the company's ability to navigate the energy transition.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The business operates in a mature, slow-growth industry with limited potential for rapid expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock lacks the high volatility or volume-driven price trends often favored by momentum strategies. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The company may offer value characteristics, but investors must account for the long-term decline risks of heating oil. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The MLP structure and focus on cash flow generation make this a candidate for income-oriented portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the business is sensitive to energy prices and weather risk, adding complexity. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Fluctuations in heating oil and propane costs impact working capital and margin stability. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The market's long-term outlook for fossil fuel heating can suppress valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk (heating fuel retailers) | Medium | High fragmentation means constant pricing and service pressure from local and regional rivals. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business provides essential services but faces secular demand headwinds. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Distributions depend on consistent cash flow, which is sensitive to climate and economic factors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on effectively integrating acquisitions and managing seasonal fleet logistics. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -17.29% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 424.58M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 5.7 | 1Y Target Price 13 |
Price to earnings Ratio 5.7 | 1Y Target Price 13 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 23.2K shares | Beta 0.3 | 52 Weeks Range 10.74 - 13.13 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 10.74 - 13.13 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 5.92% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.27 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel Sales | Retail delivery of heating oil and propane. | The primary way the company generates revenue is by selling energy products that people need to heat their homes during cold weather. |
| Equipment & Service | HVAC system repairs, installations, and maintenance contracts. | These services provide a steady, year-round income stream that helps offset the seasonal nature of fuel sales. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 5.7 | Forward PE 9.8 | Enterprise Value 667.45M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.22 |
Enterprise Value 667.45M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.22 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.35 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.82 | Shares Outstanding 32.81M | Shares Floating 24.58M |
Shares Outstanding 32.81M | Shares Floating 24.58M | ||
Percent Insiders 15.2 | Percent Institutions 42.21 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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