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Upturn AI Summary - About
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust(SJT)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for SJT
10/23/2026: SJT (1-star) is a SELL. SELL for 3 days. Simulated Profits (10.42%). Updated daily EoD!
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is a pass-through entity that provides investors with exposure to oil and natural gas production in New Mexico. Its main strength is a low-overhead structure that distributes most net profits directly to unit holders, making it attractive for income-focused investors. The primary investment story centers on capturing royalty income from established reserves, though it is a depleting asset with a finite lifespan. Key risks include high sensitivity to commodity price volatility, dependence on third-party operator efficiency, and potential regulatory costs. Investors should monitor commodity price trends and operator reports to assess the stability of future monthly cash distributions.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The trust is a depleting asset and does not possess the characteristics of a growing business. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum fits only during strong commodity price upswings; this is conditional on energy market signals. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value is difficult to assess given the depleting nature of the underlying assets. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The trust is designed to pass through cash flow directly to investors as dividend income. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility in commodity prices and the depleting nature of the trust create significant risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is entirely dependent on market commodity prices which fluctuate significantly. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | It is difficult to determine an accurate valuation for a finite-life asset. |
| Competition risk (commodity price dependence) | Medium | The trust competes for capital with other energy investments and is subject to global energy trends. |
| Business quality | Medium | The trust is a passive entity with no control over operational quality. |
| Dividend income | High | Distributions are highly variable and can be zero in months with high operational expenses. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The trust relies entirely on the third-party operator, Hilcorp, to execute operations efficiently. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -49.35% | Avg. Invested days 23 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  1.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 157.07M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 20.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 20.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 457.2K shares | Beta 0.7 | 52 Weeks Range 2.37 - 6.55 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 2.37 - 6.55 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.02 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Royalty Interest | Net profits interest from natural gas and oil sales in the San Juan Basin. | You get a share of the profits from gas and oil sales, but those profits can disappear if costs are high or commodity prices drop. |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 11.59 | Enterprise Value 145.43M | Price to Sales(TTM) 10.97 |
Enterprise Value 145.43M | Price to Sales(TTM) 10.97 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 160.17 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.13 | Shares Outstanding 46.61M | Shares Floating 39.11M |
Shares Outstanding 46.61M | Shares Floating 39.11M | ||
Percent Insiders - | Percent Institutions 37.48 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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