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Upturn AI Summary - About
Texas Pacific Land Corporation(TPL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TPL
11/06/2026: TPL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a unique entity that acts as both a landlord and a utility provider within the high-production Permian Basin. By combining mineral royalties with high-margin water infrastructure services, the company captures significant value from regional energy development without the operational risks of drilling. Its core opportunity lies in the continued intensification of Permian oil activity and the expansion of its water utility business. However, investors must consider risks related to commodity price volatility and geographic concentration. The stock typically suits investors comfortable with energy-sector cyclicality who seek exposure to foundational land assets and infrastructure growth.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Investors benefit from the long-term appreciation of Permian Basin assets and expansion of high-margin water service operations. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | TPL stock often tracks the broader energy sector and Permian production trends, making it attractive during positive energy market upturns. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | While assets are high-quality, the stock can trade at a premium to NAV, requiring careful valuation assessment. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The company pays a dividend, but it is not historically categorized as a high-yield 'dividend aristocrat' play. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock's high sensitivity to commodity price cycles and geographic concentration results in higher-than-average volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is highly sensitive to oil and gas price fluctuations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The market often assigns a premium to TPL's unique land assets. |
| Competition risk (Energy infrastructure) | Medium | Regional water and midstream service providers compete for operator contracts. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company owns highly productive, low-cost assets in a premier oil basin. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividend payments may vary based on corporate capital allocation needs. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Scaling water infrastructure requires consistent operational focus. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 55.78% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 18.79B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 32 | 1Y Target Price 443 |
Price to earnings Ratio 32 | 1Y Target Price 443 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 366.2K shares | Beta 0.58 | 52 Weeks Range 265.31 - 544.86 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 265.31 - 544.86 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.86% | Basic EPS (TTM) 8.51 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Royalties | Royalty payments from production on TPL-owned mineral interests. | This is essentially 'mailbox money' from oil production on company land. |
| Water Services | Water sourcing, recycling, and disposal services for energy companies. | The company acts as a utility provider to oil drillers, charging for essential operational water needs. |
| Surface Land | Land sales, easements, and surface use leases. | TPL monetizes its vast land holdings by selling space for infrastructure or surface access. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 2.35 | Actual 2.42 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 60.71% | Operating Margin (TTM) 76.2% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 26.08% | Return on Equity (TTM) 37.07% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 32 | Forward PE 37.74 | Enterprise Value 18.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 19.41 |
Enterprise Value 18.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 19.41 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 19.03 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.5 | Shares Outstanding 68.97M | Shares Floating 58.87M |
Shares Outstanding 68.97M | Shares Floating 58.87M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.4 | Percent Institutions 75.19 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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