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Upturn AI Summary - About
Exagen Inc(XGN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for XGN
10/28/2026: XGN (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Exagen Inc is a small-cap diagnostic company specializing in testing services for autoimmune and related conditions, particularly within the field of rheumatology. Its core strength lies in its proprietary AVISE platform, which seeks to offer better clinical insights than standard-of-care diagnostic tests. The primary investment opportunity centers on the potential for increased market adoption of these specialized tests as clinical utility evidence grows. However, the company faces significant risks, including intense competition from large reference laboratories, potential reimbursement pressures, and the challenge of achieving sustained profitability. This stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high volatility and execution risk, and monitor developments in insurance coverage and physician adoption.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company operates in a growth-oriented specialty diagnostics market but faces significant challenges in achieving scale and profitability. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Fit is conditional on positive technical and fundamental momentum signals which have been inconsistent historically. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Exagen lacks the stable earnings and cash flow profile typically sought by value investors. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and focuses entirely on reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Small-cap biotechnology and diagnostics stocks carry inherent high volatility and execution risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to significant swings based on clinical, regulatory, and commercial news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Market valuations for growth-stage diagnostics can be sensitive to interest rates and revenue growth misses. |
| Competition risk (diagnostics) | High | Exagen faces intense competition from established, large-scale national laboratories. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business relies on specialized, proprietary tests, but lacks the scale of diversified incumbents. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend income is provided to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully scaling the sales and adoption of specialized diagnostic tests is difficult and capital-intensive. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 202.69% | Avg. Invested days 36 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 188.47M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 10.57 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 10.57 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 342.0K shares | Beta 2.12 | 52 Weeks Range 2.59 - 11.92 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 2.59 - 11.92 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.84 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Diagnostic Testing Services | Revenue generated from the processing and reporting of AVISE tests for healthcare providers. | Exagen makes money by performing specialized blood tests that help doctors diagnose and monitor complex autoimmune diseases. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 182.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.65 |
Enterprise Value 182.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.65 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.56 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA -0.16 | Shares Outstanding 24.23M | Shares Floating 11.05M |
Shares Outstanding 24.23M | Shares Floating 11.05M | ||
Percent Insiders 24.25 | Percent Institutions 44.95 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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