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Upturn AI Summary - About
AAON Inc(AAON)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AAON
11/09/2026: AAON (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
AAON Inc is a prominent manufacturer of premium commercial and industrial HVAC equipment, specializing in high-performance rooftop units and mission-critical cooling systems. The company is known for its agile, semi-custom manufacturing model, which provides a competitive advantage in lead times and engineering customization. A significant growth opportunity lies in its expanding footprint within the data center cooling market. Investors should monitor risks related to the cyclical nature of commercial construction, potential supply chain disruptions, and competition from larger industry incumbents. Overall, the stock may appeal to growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to critical building infrastructure and high-efficiency industrial technology.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | AAON has demonstrated consistent long-term revenue growth through product innovation and strategic expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum suitability is conditional on the stock maintaining a positive price trend in line with industrial sector performance. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock often trades at a premium valuation multiple due to its growth profile and quality. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The dividend yield is relatively low, making it better suited for growth than income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The company is high quality, but small-cap industrial stocks can experience significant price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is subject to market sentiment regarding the broader industrial and construction sectors. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | High P/E multiples require sustained earnings growth to justify current share prices. |
| Competition risk (HVAC incumbents) | Medium | Large competitors like Trane and Carrier have significantly more resources to defend their market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | AAON has a solid reputation for engineering and high-margin products that command premium pricing. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is secondary to growth and should not be the primary driver for an investment decision. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of acquisitions like BasX is critical to long-term performance. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 41.85% | Avg. Invested days 53 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.72B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 30.1 | 1Y Target Price 128.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 30.1 | 1Y Target Price 128.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.2M shares | Beta 1.46 | 52 Weeks Range 53.13 - 150.16 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 53.13 - 150.16 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.74% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.9 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial HVAC Units | Custom rooftop units, chillers, and air handlers for offices and retail. | This is the core stable business that generates the majority of revenue. |
| Mission Critical/Data Center | Cooling solutions for data centers and specialized high-tech facilities. | This is the primary growth driver and tech-adjacent opportunity for the company. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-09 | When After Market | Estimate 0.56 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 8.24% | Operating Margin (TTM) 10.99% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.24% | Return on Equity (TTM) 17.28% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 30.1 | Forward PE 15.2 | Enterprise Value 5.17B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.44 |
Enterprise Value 5.17B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.44 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.67 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 17.28 | Shares Outstanding 82.45M | Shares Floating 68.85M |
Shares Outstanding 82.45M | Shares Floating 68.85M | ||
Percent Insiders 16.73 | Percent Institutions 85.89 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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