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American Financial Group, Inc.(AFG)

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ADVISORIES YOU CAN VERIFY
QUALITY SIGNAL RECENCY
2-STAR RATING
WEAK BUY
BUY for 108 days
PROFIT SINCE LAST BUY
+9.71%
LAST CLOSE
$142.31
09/18/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AFG

09/18/2026: AFG (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Price Behavior

Strong Uptrend
PRICE PATH

Strong Uptrend

The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.

Very Smooth
PRICE STABILITY

Very Smooth

The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 3.46%
Avg. Invested days 48
Today’s Advisory WEAK BUY
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 09/18/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

AFG receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid company fundamentals, and solid quantitative characteristics. The rating is constrained by weak price momentum, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

AFG has solid overall fundamentals (4 stars), with moderate financial health, moderate growth momentum, and strong ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong cash generation (FCF margin 17.2%) and solid profitability (net margin 10.4%) are partially offset by negative earnings growth (-5.1%), slightly negative revenue growth (-1.9%).

Financial Health Rating

AFG's financial health is supported by strong cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation of $1.4B (17.2% of revenue). Profitability is moderate (3 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

Free-cash-flow growth is AFG's strongest growth driver at +21.4% FY2025 versus FY2024 (solid, 4 stars). By comparison, while revenue growth (-1.9%, slightly negative) and earnings growth (-5.1%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

Institutional ownership is 68.4% and approximately 80.5% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 20.26% supports management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

BlackRock Inc 8.24%
FMR Inc 7.69%
Vanguard Portfolio Management, LLC 4.72%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 3.96%
State Street Corp 3.63%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

AFG generates approximately $176 of gross profit, $132 of operating income, and $172 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Strong cash conversion and healthy margins support the rating, although capital efficiency remains below the highest tier.

Economic Dimensions

Effective Tax Rate: 21.53%

Quantitative Style Profile

AFG has a high-quality, large-cap, liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedQuality TiltLow VolatilityLarge / Mega Cap StabilityHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Large-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 11.80B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 12.44
1Y Target Price 155.83
Price to earnings Ratio 12.44
1Y Target Price 155.83
Volume (30-day avg) 361.5K shares
Beta 0.6
52 Weeks Range 121.70 - 148.71
Updated Date 09/20/2026
52 Weeks Range 121.70 - 148.71
Updated Date 09/20/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 2.46%
Basic EPS (TTM) 11.44

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE 12.44
Forward PE 11.53
Enterprise Value 12.18B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.46
Enterprise Value 12.18B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.46
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.49
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -
Shares Outstanding 82.92M
Shares Floating 66.72M
Shares Outstanding 82.92M
Shares Floating 66.72M
Percent Insiders 20.26
Percent Institutions 68.41

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

About American Financial Group, Inc.

Exchange NYSE
Headquarters Cincinnati, OH, United States
IPO Launch date 1983-04-06
Co-CEO & Director Mr. Stephen Craig Lindner
Sector Financial Services
Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty
Full time employees 8500
Full time employees 8500

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Other segments. The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, other specialty transportation niches, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. It sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was formerly known as American Financial Group Holdings Inc and changed its name to American Financial Group, Inc. in July 1997. The company was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.