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Akebia Ther(AKBA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AKBA
09/15/2026: AKBA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Akebia Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biotechnology company focused on treating patients with chronic kidney disease. Its primary strength lies in the successful FDA approval and commercial launch of Vafseo, an oral therapy for anemia. This product offers a potential growth opportunity by challenging legacy injectable treatments. However, the company faces significant competition from established industry incumbents and carries risks related to its narrow product focus, execution challenges, and historical financial losses. This stock may best suit investors comfortable with the high-risk, high-reward nature of emerging biotechnology firms. Investors should monitor prescription adoption rates and the company's progress toward achieving sustainable profitability through commercial sales.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential based on product commercialization but carries high execution risk. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive news flow and commercial adoption signals. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company is not currently profitable and lacks traditional value metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and reinvests all capital. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The inherent volatility of biotech stocks makes this unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Biotech stocks are highly reactive to clinical and regulatory outcomes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuation is sensitive to future cash flow projections which remain uncertain. |
| Competition risk (ESA market) | High | The company must overcome strong competition from entrenched injectable biologics. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company is in a transition phase from R&D to commercial-stage operation. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend income and none expected in the near term. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully scaling commercial operations and gaining physician adoption is a major hurdle. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -43.01% | Avg. Invested days 27 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/15/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 266.83M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.92 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.92 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 8.1M shares | Beta 0.19 | 52 Weeks Range 0.81 - 3.20 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 0.81 - 3.20 | Updated Date 09/15/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.12 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Product Sales | Revenue generated from the sale of Vafseo (vadadustat) in the United States. | The company relies on doctors choosing their drug over older, established options. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 28.74 | Enterprise Value 166.55M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.22 |
Enterprise Value 166.55M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.22 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.74 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 64.35 | Shares Outstanding 277.11M | Shares Floating 270.60M |
Shares Outstanding 277.11M | Shares Floating 270.60M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.06 | Percent Institutions 42.98 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Akebia Ther
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Cambridge, MA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2014-03-20 | CEO, President & Director Mr. John P. Butler MBA | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Full time employees 194 | Website https://www.akebia.com |
Full time employees 194 | Website https://www.akebia.com | ||
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. Its product portfolio includes Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis dependent (NDD) patients; and Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with NDD-CKD. The company is also developing AKB-9090, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating cardiac surgery-related acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome; and AKB-10108 for the treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in neonates. The company has license and collaboration agreements with Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of Vafseo in Japan and other Asian countries; Vafseo License and Collaboration Agreements; CSL Vifor Agreements; Averoa License Agreement; License Agreement with Panion & BF Biotech, Inc.; Cyclerion Therapeutics License Agreement; and Q32 Asset Purchase Agreement. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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