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Upturn AI Summary - About
Akebia Ther(AKBA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AKBA
10/13/2026: AKBA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Akebia Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on addressing unmet medical needs in kidney disease, specifically through its recently approved drug, Vafseo. Its main strength lies in this specialized focus and the successful regulatory approval of its primary therapeutic candidate. The central investment story revolves around the market adoption of Vafseo within the dialysis patient population. However, the company faces substantial risks, including intense competition from established, well-resourced pharmaceutical giants and the significant execution risks inherent in a commercial launch. It may suit growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance, who should closely monitor quarterly sales updates and ongoing market access developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company is at a pivotal commercialization stage, offering potential growth contingent on Vafseo adoption. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find interest during periods of positive news flow regarding product adoption or regulatory updates. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The lack of consistent profitability and reliance on future cash flows makes it a poor fit for traditional value strategies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and focuses capital on growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and operational risks make this unsuitable for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Biotech stocks are prone to significant swings based on clinical and commercial outcomes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuations are often speculative and tied to long-term projections that may not materialize. |
| Competition risk (ESA market) | High | Competing against entrenched players with large market share is difficult and resource-intensive. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company is transitioning to a commercial model, which is a major shift in operational quality. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company focuses resources on R&D and launch, not returning cash to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Successful commercial rollout of Vafseo is critical for future solvency and growth. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -41.21% | Avg. Invested days 27 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 218.97M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.92 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.92 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 7.0M shares | Beta 0.18 | 52 Weeks Range 0.77 - 3.20 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 0.77 - 3.20 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.12 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Product Sales | Revenue generated from the sale of Vafseo in the United States. | The company earns money primarily by selling its approved drug to healthcare providers and dialysis centers. |
| Collaboration and Licensing | Revenue from licensing agreements and milestone payments from partners. | Akebia also generates income through partnerships with other companies to develop and sell drugs in different markets. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 28.74 | Enterprise Value 157.85M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1 |
Enterprise Value 157.85M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.72 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 64.35 | Shares Outstanding 277.11M | Shares Floating 272.25M |
Shares Outstanding 277.11M | Shares Floating 272.25M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.98 | Percent Institutions 40.78 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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