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Upturn AI Summary - About
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc(ALSN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ALSN
10/09/2026: ALSN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Allison Transmission is a specialized industrial manufacturer known for providing reliable fully automatic transmissions to heavy-duty and commercial vehicle markets. The company maintains a leading position in vocational niches and has historically delivered strong margins through its aftermarket and service segments. Its core growth story centers on successfully transitioning its product portfolio to include eGen Power electric axles for the next generation of transport. Primary risks include rapid industry disruption from alternative electric drivetrains and exposure to cyclical industrial production cycles. Allison is generally well-suited for value and dividend-focused investors, provided they monitor the company’s progress in winning commercial electric vehicle integration contracts.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely dependent on the successful transition of their core product base to electric axles. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often trends well during periods of high industrial production and strong vocational vehicle demand. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company frequently trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its strong cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend payments and a focus on capital return make it an attractive option for income-oriented portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business is stable, the stock remains subject to cyclical industrial market volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock price is often sensitive to macroeconomic data regarding industrial production and heavy-duty truck orders. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation, usually preventing extreme valuation overextensions. |
| Competition risk (Powertrain Electrification) | Medium / high | The shift toward electrification poses a long-term threat to the relevance of traditional mechanical transmission designs. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses a highly defensible market position and high-margin product lines in vocational niches. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is supported by strong cash flows and a history of prudent capital management. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully transitioning manufacturing lines to support electric axle production is a complex operational undertaking. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 36.27% | Avg. Invested days 43 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 9.01B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.35 | 1Y Target Price 140.45 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.35 | 1Y Target Price 140.45 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 787.6K shares | Beta 0.98 | 52 Weeks Range 75.21 - 136.97 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 75.21 - 136.97 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.01% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.29 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| On-Highway Transmission Sales | Automatic transmissions for commercial trucks, buses, and vocational vehicles. | This is the primary revenue engine, benefiting from steady demand in trucking and public transportation. |
| Service & Aftermarket | Replacement parts and remanufacturing services. | This provides a steady, high-margin revenue stream that persists even when new vehicle sales slow. |
| Defense & Off-Highway | Transmissions for military, mining, and construction vehicles. | These specialized segments provide diversification away from standard commercial vehicle cycles. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.35 | Forward PE 10.21 | Enterprise Value 13.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.05 |
Enterprise Value 13.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.05 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.99 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.18 | Shares Outstanding 82.58M | Shares Floating 81.81M |
Shares Outstanding 82.58M | Shares Floating 81.81M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.73 | Percent Institutions 107 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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