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Upturn AI Summary - About
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc(ALSN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ALSN
10/23/2026: ALSN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is a specialized manufacturer of high-performance transmissions for commercial and defense vehicles, known for its strong market position and reliable cash flow. The company's primary strength lies in its legacy of performance in vocational vehicles and a steady aftermarket business. Its main growth opportunity involves the deployment of its eGen electric powertrain solutions to address the industry-wide shift toward electrification. Investors must balance this potential with risks regarding OEM vertical integration and cyclical commercial vehicle demand. It may suit investors seeking a combination of value-oriented stock pricing, reliable dividend income, and exposure to the ongoing electric-powertrain transition.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While the company is growing its EV portfolio, its core business is a mature, cyclical industrial. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often trends well during periods of high vocational truck demand and strong industrial performance. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company historically trades at reasonable earnings multiples relative to its high cash flow conversion. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend payments and share repurchases make it an attractive option for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The company is subject to cyclical industrial and automotive demand, leading to moderate volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is sensitive to industrial economic cycles and truck build rates. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market expectations for the pace of EV transition can impact premium valuation. |
| Competition risk (Integrated Powertrains) | High | Increasing integration by major truck OEMs could threaten third-party component suppliers. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains high barriers to entry and strong margins in its core segments. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend is well-covered by cash flows and generally considered reliable. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully managing the transition from legacy transmissions to electric platforms is vital. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 37.82% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 9.05B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.64 | 1Y Target Price 138.91 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.64 | 1Y Target Price 138.91 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 764.1K shares | Beta 0.98 | 52 Weeks Range 75.21 - 136.97 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 75.21 - 136.97 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.01% | Basic EPS (TTM) 6.21 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| North America On-Highway | Transmission sales for trucks and buses in the US and Canada. | This is the primary revenue driver, reflecting the health of the North American trucking and vocational vehicle market. |
| Defense | Propulsion systems for government tactical vehicles. | Provides stable, long-term revenue streams tied to defense budgets rather than commercial cycles. |
| Aftermarket/Service | Replacement parts and remanufacturing services. | This segment provides recurring revenue and high margins as older transmissions require maintenance. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.64 | Forward PE 10.21 | Enterprise Value 13.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.06 |
Enterprise Value 13.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.06 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.99 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.18 | Shares Outstanding 82.58M | Shares Floating 81.81M |
Shares Outstanding 82.58M | Shares Floating 81.81M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.73 | Percent Institutions 106.78 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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