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Upturn AI Summary - About
Smith AO Corporation(AOS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AOS
10/12/2026: AOS (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Smith AO Corporation is a established player in the water heating and treatment industry, known for its consistent financial performance and market-leading residential product line. The company's strengths lie in its deep distribution networks and a successful multi-decade track record of innovation in energy efficiency. Its primary growth story revolves around expanding its footprint in the residential water treatment market and adapting to the electrification of heating systems. Investors should monitor risks related to housing market cycles, raw material costs, and competition in its water treatment segment. Given its steady growth profile and long-standing dividend history, the stock may best suit value and income-oriented investors.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers stable, steady growth rather than the rapid expansion typically sought by aggressive growth investors. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum appeal is generally dependent on broader market cycles and housing sector sentiment. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | AOS often trades at reasonable valuations relative to its long-term earnings potential and market position. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | With a strong track record of dividend increases, AOS is a reliable choice for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The company's defensive business model and solid balance sheet make it suitable for those prioritizing capital preservation. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock is subject to broader market and housing sector sentiment shifts. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | As a stable industrial, it can sometimes trade at premiums that limit short-term upside. |
| Competition risk (HVAC/Water) | Medium / high | Constant innovation pressure from rivals like Rheem is a material competitive factor. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains a high-quality franchise with durable market presence. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The consistent payout history provides a reliable income floor for investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully integrating acquisitions and managing global supply chains remains key to long-term performance. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -10.94% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.66B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 15.7 | 1Y Target Price 69.91 |
Price to earnings Ratio 15.7 | 1Y Target Price 69.91 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares | Beta 1.11 | 52 Weeks Range 53.83 - 80.92 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 53.83 - 80.92 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.51% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.59 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| North America Water Heating | Residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and heat pumps. | This is the primary revenue driver, benefiting from consistent replacement demand. |
| Water Treatment | Filtration, softening, and purification systems. | A key growth platform leveraging the brand for healthier home water solutions. |
| Geography: International | Operations in China, Europe, and India. | Provides geographic diversification but introduces exposure to regional macroeconomic cycles. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 15.7 | Forward PE 13.81 | Enterprise Value 8.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.01 |
Enterprise Value 8.34B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.01 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.19 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 11 | Shares Outstanding 110.05M | Shares Floating 108.25M |
Shares Outstanding 110.05M | Shares Floating 108.25M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.46 | Percent Institutions 117.2 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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