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Upturn AI Summary - About
Ares Capital Corporation(ARCC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ARCC
10/09/2026: ARCC (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded business development company (BDC), providing specialized debt and equity financing to middle-market firms. The company benefits from the extensive deal-sourcing capabilities of Ares Management, which helps maintain a diverse and robust investment portfolio. Its primary growth opportunity lies in the continued migration of middle-market lending from traditional banks to private credit providers. However, investors must monitor risks related to interest rate volatility, potential borrower defaults, and increased competition that may compress loan yields. ARCC is generally suited for dividend-focused investors seeking exposure to private credit markets, with total returns derived primarily from consistent quarterly income distributions.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | ARCC is primarily an income-oriented vehicle rather than a capital appreciation play. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive price trends and a strong credit market signal. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Investors often look for opportunities to buy at or near Net Asset Value (NAV). |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company is specifically designed to provide consistent income through dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While diversified, the nature of credit and leverage inherent in BDCs creates underlying risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | As a publicly traded stock, the market price can fluctuate based on interest rate sentiment and economic data. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Trading at a significant premium to NAV may present valuation risks for new investors. |
| Competition risk (Private Credit) | Medium / high | The entry of more capital into private credit can compress yields on new loans. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a long track record of managing a large, diversified credit portfolio. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The income stream is a core component of the total return proposition. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the manager's ability to select credit-worthy borrowers and manage non-accruals. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 8.24% | Avg. Invested days 56 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 13.46B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 13.99 | 1Y Target Price 20.77 |
Price to earnings Ratio 13.99 | 1Y Target Price 20.77 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.8M shares | Beta 0.66 | 52 Weeks Range 16.55 - 19.83 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 16.55 - 19.83 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 10.41% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.34 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Direct Lending | Interest and fee income from a portfolio of middle-market loans. | You are effectively investing in a fund that lends money to companies; you get paid the interest. |
| Geography | Operations are primarily focused within the United States. | Domestic economic health and interest rates are the primary drivers of performance. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 13.99 | Forward PE 10.03 | Enterprise Value 28.91B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.33 |
Enterprise Value 28.91B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.33 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 25.15 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.19 | Shares Outstanding 718.02M | Shares Floating - |
Shares Outstanding 718.02M | Shares Floating - | ||
Percent Insiders 0.56 | Percent Institutions 35.96 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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