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Upturn AI Summary - About
Alliance Resource Partners LP(ARLP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ARLP
10/13/2026: ARLP (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Alliance Resource Partners LP is a significant US-based producer of thermal coal and a holder of oil and gas mineral rights. The company is known for its disciplined, low-cost operational strategy, which has historically allowed it to generate consistent cash flow even within a shrinking domestic coal market. Its primary investment story centers on its ability to maximize distributions through efficient mining and high-yield royalty assets. However, investors must navigate risks related to the secular decline of coal, environmental regulatory pressures, and commodity price volatility. The stock may best suit income-focused investors looking for high-yield, albeit cyclical, exposure to the energy sector.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company operates in a mature, secularly declining industry with limited prospects for long-term capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly conditional on short-term commodity price spikes and sector-specific sentiment. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The units are often priced at low multiples, offering attractive valuation for those focused on cash flow multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The primary appeal of ARLP is its consistent track record of generating and distributing significant cash to unitholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Commodity price sensitivity and the decline of the coal industry create inherent volatility and structural risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenues are directly tied to fluctuating coal and oil/gas commodity prices. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The market often prices the units at conservative multiples due to secular industry decline. |
| Competition risk (coal replacement) | High | Natural gas and renewables continue to displace coal in the power generation mix. |
| Business quality | Medium | Management is highly disciplined, though the business model is inherently constrained by its resource base. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Distributions are dependent on cash flow, which can be impacted by market downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Operational success requires ongoing cost containment in a challenging regulatory environment. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -14.88% | Avg. Invested days 42 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.20B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 12.15 | 1Y Target Price 31.17 |
Price to earnings Ratio 12.15 | 1Y Target Price 31.17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 265.9K shares | Beta 0.3 | 52 Weeks Range 20.88 - 28.08 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 20.88 - 28.08 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 9.75% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.05 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Coal Sales | Production and sale of thermal and metallurgical coal to US and international utilities. | The main source of cash, linked directly to global and domestic energy demand. |
| Oil & Gas Royalties | Royalty payments from third-party production on owned mineral rights. | A secondary, lower-overhead income stream that provides diversification. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 12.15 | Forward PE 8.98 | Enterprise Value 3.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.47 |
Enterprise Value 3.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.47 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.73 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 11.16 | Shares Outstanding 128.66M | Shares Floating 90.78M |
Shares Outstanding 128.66M | Shares Floating 90.78M | ||
Percent Insiders 29.35 | Percent Institutions 16.34 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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