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Upturn AI Summary - About
Peabody Energy Corp(BTU)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BTU
11/09/2026: BTU (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Peabody Energy is a major global coal producer specializing in both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for steel production. The company has historically maintained a strong operational position, particularly in the Powder River Basin, and has significantly improved its financial health through disciplined debt reduction. Its primary investment story centers on leveraging metallurgical coal demand while managing the inevitable transition away from thermal energy. Key risks include intense regulatory scrutiny, volatile commodity pricing, and secular industry decline. The stock may best suit value-oriented investors who can tolerate cyclical volatility, and market participants should monitor global infrastructure spending and regulatory developments closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company operates in a mature, secularly declining industry rather than a high-growth sector. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can exhibit strong momentum during commodity price upcycles, conditional on positive price action. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at low valuation multiples, reflecting industry skepticism and cyclical risks. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | While dividends are paid, they are variable and tied to cyclical commodity earnings rather than being a stable income stream. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High commodity price sensitivity and industry-specific regulatory risks create significant volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenues are directly tied to volatile global coal price indices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward coal can cause significant swings in equity valuation regardless of operational performance. |
| Competition risk (Carbon transition) | High | The transition to cleaner energy sources poses a long-term existential threat to thermal coal demand. |
| Business quality | Medium | While operations are efficient, the business model is inherently tied to a commodity with environmental headwinds. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are variable and not guaranteed, making them unreliable for income-focused investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Operational disruptions in mining or logistics could significantly impact short-term cash flows. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -16.94% | Avg. Invested days 24 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.95B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 30.92 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 30.92 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.6M shares | Beta 0.43 | 52 Weeks Range 15.69 - 40.88 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 15.69 - 40.88 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.87% | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.19 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Thermal Coal | Sale of thermal coal from mines in the Powder River Basin and other U.S. regions. | Revenue depends heavily on U.S. power plant demand and electricity prices. |
| Metallurgical Coal | High-grade coking coal sales for global steel manufacturing. | This is a key margin driver linked to global steel production and infrastructure development. |
| Seaborne Thermal Coal | Exports of thermal coal from Australian operations to Asia. | Exposes investors to electricity demand growth in emerging Asian economies. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 19.12 | Enterprise Value 1.89B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 |
Enterprise Value 1.89B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.65 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.74 | Shares Outstanding 121.90M | Shares Floating 112.73M |
Shares Outstanding 121.90M | Shares Floating 112.73M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.99 | Percent Institutions 100.55 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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