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Upturn AI Summary - About
Peabody Energy Corp(BTU)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BTU
10/08/2026: BTU (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Peabody Energy is a major global producer of thermal and metallurgical coal, serving power generators and steel manufacturers. The company has a leading position in the low-cost Powder River Basin and holds significant metallurgical coal assets in Australia. Its primary investment story hinges on capital discipline, debt management, and meeting energy demand in developing Asian markets. However, the business faces significant risks, including structural shifts toward renewable energy and persistent regulatory pressures. Peabody is best suited for value-oriented investors who can tolerate commodity price volatility and are looking for exposure to the cyclical recovery of energy and steel-related markets.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The coal industry is largely mature and ex-growth, limiting capital appreciation potential. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | This is a cyclical stock that moves aggressively with commodity price trends, requiring precise timing. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at low valuation multiples, making it attractive to those seeking value in out-of-favor sectors. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are dependent on cyclical cash flows and are not always consistent or high-yield. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to commodity price volatility and regulatory shifts makes it unsuitable for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Profitability is directly tied to unpredictable global coal market benchmarks. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations fluctuate wildly based on short-term commodity price expectations. |
| Competition risk (energy transition) | High | The sector faces long-term structural displacement by cleaner, renewable energy sources. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business operates in a challenged, capital-intensive industry with limited moat. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Income is variable and not guaranteed during down-cycles. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Efficiently managing large-scale mining operations and reclamation is essential for long-term viability. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -13.44% | Avg. Invested days 26 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.03B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 31.58 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 31.58 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.4M shares | Beta 0.32 | 52 Weeks Range 20.00 - 40.88 | Updated Date 10/07/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 20.00 - 40.88 | Updated Date 10/07/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.18% | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.49 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal Coal - U.S. | Power generation supply from Powder River Basin and other assets. | Steady but slowly declining revenue source due to domestic energy shifts. |
| Metallurgical Coal | High-grade coal for steel manufacturing, largely via Australian assets. | The higher-margin growth driver linked to global steel production. |
| Export/Seaborne | Thermal coal exports to Asian power markets. | Offers exposure to energy demand growth in developing economies. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 19.12 | Enterprise Value 3.12B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.76 |
Enterprise Value 3.12B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.76 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.78 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.86 | Shares Outstanding 121.90M | Shares Floating 112.73M |
Shares Outstanding 121.90M | Shares Floating 112.73M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.99 | Percent Institutions 100.75 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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