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Upturn AI Summary - About
Algoma Steel Group Inc(ASTL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ASTL
10/23/2026: ASTL (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Algoma Steel Group Inc is a long-standing Canadian steel producer that is currently navigating a major multi-year transition toward lower-emission Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology. The company has a solid regional footprint in the Great Lakes area, which supports demand from key automotive and construction sectors. Its primary growth story revolves around the successful completion of this modernization project and the potential to capture premium pricing for 'green' steel. However, investors must weigh these opportunities against significant risks, including high capital intensity, operational execution complexity, and the inherent volatility of global commodity steel prices. The stock may suit investors willing to tolerate industry-specific volatility for long-term transformation potential.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The growth narrative is tied to the successful completion of the EAF transition rather than rapid market expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Momentum investors typically avoid the high volatility and commodity-price sensitivity inherent in this steel stock. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value investors may be attracted to its asset-heavy nature, though commodity cycle risks require careful entry timing. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently prioritize significant dividend payouts given its heavy capital expenditure needs. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The combination of high operational leverage and commodity-price sensitivity makes this an unsuitable choice for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Steel is a global commodity, and price swings directly impact the company's profitability. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuation is often disconnected from fundamentals during extreme parts of the commodity cycle. |
| Competition risk (Integrated and EAF producers) | High | The company faces well-capitalized North American peers with more efficient production models. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company is undergoing a complex technological transformation that carries significant execution risk. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not rely on this company for stable or growing dividend income. |
| Execution risk | High | The EAF project is the cornerstone of future viability and faces risks related to timeline and budget overruns. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 14.88% | Avg. Invested days 48 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 500.84M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 20 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 20 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 788.4K shares | Beta 1.65 | 52 Weeks Range 3.16 - 5.90 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 3.16 - 5.90 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -7.34 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Steel Sheet and Plate | Manufacturing and selling hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and plate steel products. | The company earns money primarily by selling industrial-grade steel to construction, automotive, and energy customers. |
| Geography: North America | Primary operations and sales market within Canada and the United States. | Regional logistics and trade policies significantly impact the company's ability to maintain a competitive pricing edge. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 9.12 | Enterprise Value 742.11M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.32 |
Enterprise Value 742.11M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.32 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.99 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 74.97 | Shares Outstanding 105.66M | Shares Floating 70.51M |
Shares Outstanding 105.66M | Shares Floating 70.51M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.04 | Percent Institutions 71.84 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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