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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
12/12/2024: AUPH (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type: Stock | Upturn Star Rating | Today’s Advisory: Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Historic Profit: 33.23% | Upturn Advisory Performance 3 | Avg. Invested days: 57 |
Profits based on simulation | Stock Returns Performance 3 | Last Close 12/12/2024 |
Type: Stock | Today’s Advisory: Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Historic Profit: 33.23% | Avg. Invested days: 57 |
Upturn Star Rating | Stock Returns Performance 3 |
Profits based on simulation Last Close 12/12/2024 | Upturn Advisory Performance 3 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.45B USD |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 10.84 |
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.15 |
Volume (30-day avg) 1623872 | Beta 1.46 |
52 Weeks Range 4.71 - 10.67 | Updated Date 12/12/2024 |
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.45B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 10.84 |
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.15 | Volume (30-day avg) 1623872 | Beta 1.46 |
52 Weeks Range 4.71 - 10.67 | Updated Date 12/12/2024 |
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - |
Estimate - | Actual - |
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -10.23% | Operating Margin (TTM) 17.33% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -2.16% | Return on Equity (TTM) -5.78% |
Revenue by Products
Revenue by Products - Current and Previous Year
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography - Current and Previous Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 14.79 |
Enterprise Value 1186646409 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.57 |
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.38 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 270.31 |
Shares Outstanding 143179008 | Shares Floating 128869933 |
Percent Insiders 7.21 | Percent Institutions 42.72 |
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 14.79 | Enterprise Value 1186646409 | Price to Sales(TTM) 6.57 |
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.38 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 270.31 | Shares Outstanding 143179008 | Shares Floating 128869933 |
Percent Insiders 7.21 | Percent Institutions 42.72 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4.29 | Target Price 14 | Buy 3 |
Strong Buy 3 | Hold 1 | Sell - |
Strong Sell - |
Rating 4.29 | Target Price 14 | Buy 3 | Strong Buy 3 |
Hold 1 | Sell - | Strong Sell - |
AI Summarization
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. - Comprehensive Overview
Company Profile
Detailed History and Background:
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapies for autoimmune diseases. Founded in 2014 as Aura Biosciences, the company initially focused on developing drugs for cancer and inflammatory diseases. In 2018, it acquired rights to voclosporin, a drug for lupus nephritis, and changed its name to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Core Business Areas:
Aurinia focuses primarily on the development and commercialization of voclosporin for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN). LN is a rare autoimmune disease that affects the kidneys and can lead to kidney failure. Voclosporin is a calcineurin inhibitor that works by suppressing the immune system and preventing damage to the kidneys.
Leadership and Structure:
- Executive Leadership:
- Peter Greenleaf, Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
- Richard G. Fairfax, Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
- Michael Carruthers, Chief Medical Officer (CMO)
- Board of Directors:
- Five members, including Peter Greenleaf (Chairman) and independent directors with expertise in pharmaceuticals, finance, and law.
Top Products and Market Share
Top Products:
- Voclosporin: Aurinia's lead product, approved for the treatment of LN in adults.
- Lupuzor: Trade name for voclosporin in the US.
- Lupkynis: Trade name for voclosporin in the EU.
Market Share:
- Global LN market: Approximately $2.5 billion in 2021.
- Voclosporin market share:
- US: Estimated to be around 10% as of Q2 2023.
- Europe: Launched in February 2023, market share data not yet available.
Product Performance:
- Lupuzor/Lupkynis demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials, reducing proteinuria (a marker of kidney damage) and delaying kidney function decline.
- Received positive feedback from healthcare professionals and patient advocacy groups.
- Facing competition from established treatments like mycophenolate mofetil and belimumab.
Total Addressable Market
The global LN market is estimated to be around $2.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2022 to 2028. This growth is driven by factors such as increasing awareness of LN, rising prevalence of autoimmune diseases, and the development of new treatment options.
Financial Performance
Recent Financial Statements (2022):
- Revenue: $131.7 million
- Net Income: -$279.2 million
- Profit Margins:
- Gross margin: 76.5%
- Operating margin: -185.5%
- Net margin: -212.5%
- Earnings per Share (EPS): -$2.26
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- Revenue increased by 113% compared to 2021.
- Net loss expanded due to increased marketing and commercialization expenses for Lupuzor launch.
- Operating expenses increased significantly due to investments in commercial infrastructure and personnel.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
- Cash and equivalents: $382.5 million as of December 31, 2022.
- Strong cash position to support commercialization efforts and potential acquisitions.
Dividends and Shareholder Returns
Dividend History:
Aurinia does not currently pay dividends. As a growth-stage company, it is focused on reinvesting its earnings to fuel growth.
Shareholder Returns:
- One-year return: -57.7%
- Five-year return: -56.2%
- Ten-year return: N/A (company went public in 2019)
Growth Trajectory
Historical Growth:
Aurinia has experienced significant revenue growth since its LN drug launch in 2021. However, the company remains unprofitable due to high operating expenses associated with commercialization.
Future Growth Projections:
Analysts expect Aurinia's revenue to grow at a CAGR of over 50% in the next few years, driven by increased sales of Lupuzor/Lupkynis. The company is also exploring opportunities in other autoimmune diseases.
Recent Growth Initiatives:
- Expanding commercialization efforts in the US and Europe.
- Developing additional formulations and indications for voclosporin.
- Exploring strategic partnerships to expand market reach.
Market Dynamics
Industry Trends:
- Increasing demand for targeted therapies for autoimmune diseases.
- Growing focus on personalized medicine and patient-centric care.
- Advancements in drug development and delivery technologies.
Aurinia's Positioning:
- First-mover advantage with voclosporin for LN.
- Strong clinical data supporting the efficacy and safety of the drug.
- Experienced management team with a proven track record in drug development.
Adaptability:
- Aurinia is actively expanding its product portfolio and exploring new markets to mitigate competition risks.
- The company is investing in digital health initiatives to improve patient engagement and treatment adherence.
Competitors
Key Competitors:
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Market leader in LN treatment with Benlysta.
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Offers Orencia for LN treatment.
- Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS) - Develops chronic kidney disease treatments.
Market Share Comparison:
- GSK: 40-45% market share in the US.
- BMY: 20-25% market share in the US.
- Aurinia: 10% market share in the US (estimated).
Competitive Advantages:
- First-in-class mechanism of action for LN treatment.
- Favorable safety profile compared to other immunosuppressants.
- Strong clinical data supporting efficacy.
Disadvantages:
- Limited market share compared to established competitors.
- High operating expenses due to commercialization efforts.
- Dependence on the success of a single product.
Potential Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges:
- Competition from established players in the LN market.
- Maintaining market share in the face of potential new entrants.
- Managing operating expenses and achieving profitability.
Opportunities:
- Expanding market share through increased sales and marketing efforts.
- Developing new indications for voclosporin in other autoimmune diseases.
- Exploring strategic partnerships to expand global reach.
Recent Acquisitions
Aurinia has not made any acquisitions in the last three years.
AI-Based Fundamental Rating
Rating: 7/10
Justification:
Aurinia has a strong product with a first-mover advantage in the LN market. The company has experienced significant revenue growth and has a strong cash position. However, it faces competition from established players and needs to improve its profitability. The future growth prospects are positive, but the company needs to execute its growth strategy successfully to achieve its full potential.
Sources and Disclaimers
- Sources:
- Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations website
- SEC filings
- Market research reports
- News articles
- Disclaimer:
- This overview is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
- The information presented is based on publicly available data as of October 26, 2023.
- The AI-based rating is a subjective assessment and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions.
Please note that the information provided is based on publicly available data as of October 26, 2023. It is important to conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
Exchange | NASDAQ | Headquaters | Edmonton, AB, Canada |
IPO Launch date | 1999-01-26 | CEO & Director | Mr. Peter S. Greenleaf M.B.A. |
Sector | Healthcare | Website | https://www.auriniapharma.com |
Industry | Biotechnology | Full time employees | 300 |
Headquaters | Edmonton, AB, Canada | ||
CEO & Director | Mr. Peter S. Greenleaf M.B.A. | ||
Website | https://www.auriniapharma.com | ||
Website | https://www.auriniapharma.com | ||
Full time employees | 300 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical need in the United States. It offers LUPKYNIS for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
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