Grupo Aval logo

Grupo Aval(AVAL)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL
2-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$4.34
11/02/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
  • ALL
  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • PASS (Skip)
Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Excludes advisory subscription fees, trading commissions, and taxes, which would reduce returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for full methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AVAL

11/02/2026: AVAL (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Grupo Aval is a prominent Colombian financial holding company that operates a vast network of banks and non-banking financial services across Colombia and Central America. The company has a leading position in the local market, supported by strong brand recognition and a diversified revenue model. Its primary investment story centers on capturing growth through financial inclusion and the digital modernization of its banking services. However, investors must weigh these opportunities against significant risks, including regional economic volatility, currency fluctuations, and intense competition from digital-first entrants. The stock may suit value-oriented investors seeking regional banking exposure and potential dividend income, provided they monitor macroeconomic and regulatory developments closely.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitGrowth is largely tied to regional macroeconomic cycles rather than disruptive innovation.
Momentum investorWeak fitThe stock often lacks sustained momentum due to regional currency and political volatility.
Value investorStrong fitHistorically trades at low valuation multiples which may appeal to value-oriented investors.
Dividend investorStrong fitProvides income potential, although dividends are subject to foreign exchange fluctuations.
Low-risk investorWeak fitExposure to emerging market risks and currency volatility makes this a higher-risk profile.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighThe stock is susceptible to swings in emerging market sentiment and regional currency fluctuations.
Valuation riskLowCurrently trades at multiples that generally reflect its growth and risk profile.
Competition risk (Banking)Medium / highIntense competition from established banks and digital disruptors pressures margins.
Business qualityMediumStrong franchise and scale, but operational complexity remains high.
Dividend incomeMediumDividends are reliable but tied to regional economic performance.
Execution riskMediumSuccessfully integrating and modernizing a large, decentralized bank network is complex.

Price Behavior

Rolling Over
PRICE PATH

Rolling Over

The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 71.71%
Avg. Invested days 53
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 4.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 11/02/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
AVAL receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid quantitative characteristics. The rating is constrained by soft unit economics, soft analyst coverage, and weak price momentum.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
AVAL has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with moderate financial health, solid growth momentum, and soft ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, strong earnings growth (+58.0%) and solid revenue growth (+14.5%) are partially offset by soft cash generation (FCF margin 3.4%), soft profitability (net margin 3.8%), very low insider ownership of 0.11%.

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
AVAL's financial health is supported by strong cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation of $1452.2B (3.4% of revenue). Liquidity is moderate (3 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Free-cash-flow growth is AVAL's strongest growth driver at +109.9% FY2025 versus FY2024 (strong, 5 stars). Revenue growth (+14.5%, solid) and earnings growth (+58.0%, strong) are also constructive, though not equally high across every growth measure.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 1.3% (soft) and 55.5% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable (solid). Insider ownership is only 0.11%, which materially reduces the ownership score.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

Truffle Hound Capital, LLC 0.08%
Renaissance Technologies Corp 0.07%
Appleseed Capital 0.04%
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. 0.02%
STOKES FAMILY OFFICE, LLC 0.02%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
AVAL generates approximately $509 of gross profit, $91 of operating income, and $34 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Soft margins explain the 2-star rating, with moderate cash conversion and weak capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 34.58%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
AVAL has a liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedLow VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 5.26B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 11.66
1Y Target Price 5.1
Price to earnings Ratio 11.66
1Y Target Price 5.1
Volume (30-day avg) 164.1K shares
Beta 0.39
52 Weeks Range 3.27 - 6.10
Updated Date 11/01/2026
52 Weeks Range 3.27 - 6.10
Updated Date 11/01/2026
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.38

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
BankingInterest income from loans and consumer finance products.The bank makes money by lending money to people and businesses at higher rates than it pays for deposits.
Fee-based ServicesAsset management, trust services, and transactional fees.Steady income earned from managing investments and processing payments.
Geography: ColombiaPrimary operations and majority of loan book.Performance is tied to the Colombian economy and central bank interest rates.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Valuation

Trailing PE 11.66
Forward PE -
Enterprise Value 48.18T
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93
Enterprise Value 48.18T
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.77
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -
Shares Outstanding 378.29M
Shares Floating 210.14M
Shares Outstanding 378.29M
Shares Floating 210.14M
Percent Insiders 0.11
Percent Institutions 1.3

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

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