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Upturn AI Summary - About
AeroVironment Inc(AVAV)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AVAV
10/27/2026: AVAV (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
AeroVironment is an established defense technology provider primarily known for its portfolio of tactical unmanned aircraft and loitering munitions. The company has a leading position in small, battle-proven drone technology, which serves as a core strength for securing recurring government contracts. Its primary investment story centers on the global transition toward autonomous systems and precision strike capabilities. Risks include significant customer concentration within the Department of Defense, execution challenges in scaling production, and competition from agile defense-tech firms. As a pure-play growth company, AeroVironment is better suited for investors comfortable with high volatility, as it does not pay dividends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | AeroVironment operates in a high-growth sector with consistent demand for modern defense drone technology. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Strong price action often accompanies high-profile defense contract wins or geopolitical escalations. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock often trades at a premium valuation due to growth expectations, which may limit appeal for traditional value seekers. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility inherent in small-to-mid cap defense stocks makes this a risky choice for conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is susceptible to significant price swings based on contract announcements and broader defense sector news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | High P/E multiples often price in aggressive growth, leaving the stock vulnerable if quarterly results miss expectations. |
| Competition risk (Defense tech) | Medium | Emerging competition from well-funded, non-traditional defense firms could erode long-term market share. |
| Business quality | Medium | While technology is high-quality, business health depends heavily on the consistency of government spending cycles. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend payments are provided to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Scaling manufacturing to meet rapid, large-scale order requirements remains an operational challenge. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 42.57% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/27/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 6.38B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 213.07 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 213.07 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.4M shares | Beta 1.36 | 52 Weeks Range 113.15 - 408.25 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 113.15 - 408.25 | Updated Date 10/26/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -4.05 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) | Small tactical drones like Raven and Puma for reconnaissance and battlefield surveillance. | This is the core business providing steady revenue through government contracts for field-ready drones. |
| Loitering Munitions | Switchblade missile systems that combine drone technology with precision strike capabilities. | These represent high-growth, high-value products essential for modern, precision-focused military operations. |
| Services and Other | Training, maintenance, software-as-a-service (SaaS), and support for global fleet operators. | A growing segment that generates recurring revenue beyond initial product hardware sales. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 45.45 | Enterprise Value 6.53B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.18 |
Enterprise Value 6.53B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.18 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.26 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 69.62 | Shares Outstanding 50.82M | Shares Floating 38.07M |
Shares Outstanding 50.82M | Shares Floating 38.07M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.9 | Percent Institutions 88.45 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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