Home 
Today's Top Picks 
Top Performers 
Watchlist 
My Robo Portfolios 
ETF Zone 
How It Works 
News - Chart
- Upturn Summary
- Highlights
- Revenue
- Valuation
Upturn AI Summary - About
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock(BAER)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BAER
10/30/2026: BAER (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Bridger Aerospace is a specialized aerial firefighting company that provides critical, technology-driven aviation services to government agencies. Its core strength lies in its modern fleet and strong federal relationships, which position it to benefit from the increasing intensity of wildfire seasons. While the company has clear growth opportunities, it faces risks related to seasonal revenue volatility, high capital requirements, and intense operational demands. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors willing to accept high volatility and risk. Market participants should closely monitor fire season severity, new government contract wins, and the company's ability to maintain its specialized aircraft fleet profitably.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential tied to climate trends, but remains in a high-risk, capital-intensive development phase. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can experience momentum during peak fire seasons, though it is subject to high volatility. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company's current valuation and capital structure do not align with traditional value investing metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | No dividend is currently offered as capital is prioritized for fleet maintenance and growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High operational risks and reliance on government contracts make this a higher-risk investment. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to significant swings based on fire season intensity and contract news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The reliance on future contract growth can lead to stretched valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk | Medium | Competition from other specialized aviation providers for limited government contracts poses a constant risk. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business is critical but capital-intensive with lumpy, seasonal cash flows. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not pay a dividend, providing no income component to the total return. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Operational delays or aircraft maintenance issues can impact contract performance and revenue. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -28.68% | Avg. Invested days 26 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 24.82M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.37 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.37 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 780.4K shares | Beta 0.36 | 52 Weeks Range 0.39 - 3.44 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 0.39 - 3.44 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.85 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial Firefighting | Retainers and flight-hour-based contracts with government agencies for fire suppression. | Revenue is earned by fighting fires, making performance highly dependent on the severity of the fire season. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When After Market | Estimate 0.41 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -10.77% | Operating Margin (TTM) 19.61% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.68% | Return on Equity (TTM) -32.42% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 10.96 | Enterprise Value 707.10M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.21 |
Enterprise Value 707.10M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.21 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.13 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 25.39 | Shares Outstanding 58.83M | Shares Floating 44.22M |
Shares Outstanding 58.83M | Shares Floating 44.22M | ||
Percent Insiders 20.87 | Percent Institutions 42.47 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
Note: This website is maintained by Upturn Corporation, which is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing in securities has risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. No assurance is provided as to any particular investment return, and you may lose money using our services. You are strongly advised to consult appropriate counsel before making any investments in companies you learn about through our services. You should obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment, accounting, and other advice that takes into account your investment portfolio and overall financial situation. You are solely responsible for conducting due diligence on a potential investment. We do not affect trades for you. You will select your own broker through which to transact. Investments are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they may lose value. Please see the Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, and Disclosure for more information.
All company names, trademarks, logos, and brands are the property of their respective owners and are used for identification and informational purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks, and logos does not imply endorsement by their respective owners.