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Upturn AI Summary - About
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock(BAER)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BAER
10/02/2026: BAER (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Bridger Aerospace is an emerging aerial firefighting company known for its modern fleet of amphibious 'Super Scooper' aircraft. The company provides critical wildfire suppression and intelligence services primarily to U.S. government agencies, benefiting from the long-term trend of increased wildfire activity. Its core strength lies in its specialized fleet capabilities and internal maintenance infrastructure. However, the company faces risks related to high debt levels, contract concentration, and the seasonal nature of its business. It may suit growth-oriented investors interested in the environmental and defense services space, provided they monitor contract renewals and debt management developments closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth exposure to the wildfire suppression market but faces significant execution and debt risks. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock often exhibits high volatility and requires clear signs of contract growth to support sustained upward momentum. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | High debt levels and capital expenditures make the company less attractive from a traditional value perspective. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and focuses on reinvesting cash flow. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The business model is subject to significant operational and seasonal risks, making it unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is subject to significant price swings based on wildfire seasons and contract news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | As a growth company, valuation is sensitive to future cash flow projections and discount rates. |
| Competition risk (specialized aviation) | Medium | The niche nature of aerial firefighting protects against broad competition but invites targeted specialized entrants. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company relies heavily on government contracts, which provides stability but limits commercial pricing power. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not expect income, as all capital is reinvested. |
| Execution risk | High | Maintenance of a complex, aging-to-modernized aircraft fleet is operationally challenging. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -16.96% | Avg. Invested days 28 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 40.13M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.67 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 3.67 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 923.4K shares | Beta 0.3 | 52 Weeks Range 0.54 - 3.44 | Updated Date 10/02/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 0.54 - 3.44 | Updated Date 10/02/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.71 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial Firefighting | Contracts with USFS and states for wildfire suppression using CL-415EAF and other aircraft. | The company gets paid primarily for the time and performance of its specialized firefighting aircraft. |
| ISR Services | Data collection and surveillance support provided during fire incidents. | This is a secondary revenue stream that leverages the presence of the company's aircraft to provide valuable fire data. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 10.96 | Enterprise Value 733.76M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35 |
Enterprise Value 733.76M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.35 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.36 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 26.35 | Shares Outstanding 58.83M | Shares Floating 44.44M |
Shares Outstanding 58.83M | Shares Floating 44.44M | ||
Percent Insiders 20.49 | Percent Institutions 42.28 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Belgrade, MT, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-03-17 | President & CEO Mr. Sam Davis | ||
Sector Industrials | Industry Security & Protection Services | Full time employees 235 | Website https://www.bridgeraerospace.com |
Full time employees 235 | Website https://www.bridgeraerospace.com | ||
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States. The company offers fire suppression services, such as aerial firefighting support for ground crews by operating the Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop water as part of the initial and direct attack to slow, contain, and extinguish wildfires. It also provides aerial surveillance services via manned (Air Attack) aircraft for fire suppression over an incident and providing tactical coordination with the incident commander, and decision-makers rapid, current intelligence from useful aerial vantage points, giving access to information to support ground firefighters and safety for the public. In addition, the company offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) that provides maintenance and repair services for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish scoopers, as well as airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Further, it operates an aircraft fleet of nineteen planes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.
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