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Upturn AI Summary - About
Bayfirst Financial Corp(BAFN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BAFN
11/10/2026: BAFN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Bayfirst Financial Corp is a regional bank holding company that stands out for its specialized focus on SBA government-guaranteed lending alongside traditional community banking in Florida. The bank's main strength lies in its diversified revenue model, combining interest income from retail banking with non-interest income from loan sales. The primary growth opportunity involves scaling its digital lending capabilities to capture small business demand nationally. However, investors must monitor risks related to interest rate volatility, loan portfolio concentration, and intense competition from larger financial institutions. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who understand the cyclical nature of SBA lending and regional bank dynamics.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The bank's specialized lending model offers growth potential but is subject to cyclical industry pressures. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Small-cap banking stocks often lack the continuous upward momentum preferred by this style unless specific catalysts emerge. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company may present value for investors if shares trade at an attractive multiple to book value. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend reliability is subject to the bank's earnings volatility and capital management priorities. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Regional banking stocks involve risks related to loan portfolios and interest rate fluctuations, which may exceed low-risk profiles. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Small-cap bank stocks often experience higher price swings due to lower liquidity and market sensitivity. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must assess whether the market price appropriately reflects the underlying book value and earnings capacity. |
| Competition risk (SBA/Regional Banking) | High | Intense competition from larger banks and nimble fintech lenders threatens market share and loan margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model depends on specialized expertise and economic conditions that are outside the company's direct control. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Future dividend payments depend on the bank's earnings performance and regulatory capital constraints. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful scaling of the government-guaranteed lending division requires ongoing operational efficiency and risk management. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 5.33% | Avg. Invested days 35 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/10/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 186.42M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price - |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price - | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 77.6K shares | Beta 0.52 | 52 Weeks Range 4.26 - 9.50 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 4.26 - 9.50 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -4.29 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial & SBA Lending | Interest income from loans and premiums from selling guaranteed portions of SBA loans. | The bank earns revenue by helping small businesses secure loans and selling the risk-free portions to investors. |
| Retail Banking | Interest income from consumer loans and net interest margin on deposit accounts. | The bank functions like a standard local bank, earning money on the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. |
| Geography (Florida) | Regional banking services provided in the Tampa Bay area and Florida markets. | The company's retail foundation is built on local Florida customers, creating reliance on the health of the regional economy. |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 59.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 56.91 |
Enterprise Value 59.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 56.91 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.3 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 31.07M | Shares Floating 10.62M |
Shares Outstanding 31.07M | Shares Floating 10.62M | ||
Percent Insiders 61.05 | Percent Institutions 4.08 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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