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Upturn AI Summary - About
BHP Group Limited(BHP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BHP
11/09/2026: BHP (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
BHP Group Limited is a major global resources company primarily focused on the extraction of iron ore, copper, nickel, and metallurgical coal. The company is known for its high-quality, long-life asset base and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that consistently supports shareholder dividends. Its main growth opportunity lies in providing critical minerals for the global energy transition, while its primary risks involve exposure to cyclical commodity prices and industrial demand fluctuations in China. BHP may suit dividend and value-oriented investors seeking long-term exposure to resources. Investors should monitor commodity price trends, project execution in potash, and shifting environmental regulations.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While BHP offers exposure to energy transition metals, it is a mature, cyclical commodity company rather than a high-growth tech firm. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find opportunity during commodity price super-cycles when the stock shows strong trend strength. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | BHP is often attractive to value investors due to its strong cash flows, disciplined capital allocation, and cyclical valuation profile. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | BHP is historically a top choice for dividend seekers due to its consistent dividend policy and ability to generate significant cash. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business is high-quality, the inherent volatility of commodity prices makes it unsuitable for investors with very low risk tolerance. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Commodity price fluctuations directly impact profitability and stock performance. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Cyclical peaks can lead to overvaluation, while troughs may present better entry points. |
| Competition risk (Commodity market) | Medium / high | Intense competition from low-cost peers impacts pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | BHP holds high-quality, long-life assets that provide a sustainable competitive edge. |
| Dividend income | Strong | BHP's dividend reliability is a core pillar of its investment thesis. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Large-scale mining projects like Jansen involve complex execution and capital deployment risks. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -4.45% | Avg. Invested days 40 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 203.04B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 20.7 | 1Y Target Price 78.14 |
Price to earnings Ratio 20.7 | 1Y Target Price 78.14 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.2M shares | Beta 0.89 | 52 Weeks Range 50.08 - 96.60 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 50.08 - 96.60 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.19% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.86 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore | Operations in Western Australia and Brazil; primarily iron ore sales. | This is a primary profit engine, heavily influenced by Chinese industrial demand. |
| Copper | Global copper mines; critical metal for electrification. | The growth driver of the future, benefiting from global energy transition demand. |
| Geography | Global operations with significant sales exposure to Asia. | Success depends heavily on Asian industrial and economic health. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 20.7 | Forward PE 15.85 | Enterprise Value 211.49B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.46 |
Enterprise Value 211.49B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.46 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.6 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 6.88 | Shares Outstanding 2.54B | Shares Floating 2.48B |
Shares Outstanding 2.54B | Shares Floating 2.48B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.01 | Percent Institutions 4.68 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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