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Upturn AI Summary - About
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc(BXMT)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BXMT
11/03/2026: BXMT (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a specialized finance company that focuses on providing senior floating-rate loans for institutional commercial real estate. Its primary strength lies in its affiliation with Blackstone, providing superior market intelligence and a robust platform. The company's main investment story revolves around its role as a liquidity provider in a complex lending environment, particularly as traditional banks reduce exposure. Key risks include significant concentration in the office property sector and vulnerability to overall declines in commercial real estate valuations. It may best suit dividend-oriented investors who monitor credit performance and macro-economic trends influencing interest rates and property markets.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is a mature, income-oriented REIT focused on credit management rather than rapid asset expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Performance is highly conditional on broader commercial real estate sector recovery and interest rate stability. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | While the stock may trade at a discount to book value, the intrinsic value is heavily dependent on the credit quality of the underlying loan portfolio. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The company is designed to provide recurring income, though the sustainability of the dividend is subject to credit performance. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to commercial real estate volatility and leverage introduces risks that may not suit conservative capital preservation strategies. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock's value is susceptible to sudden changes in commercial real estate market sentiment and interest rate expectations. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Book value can be volatile if underlying commercial property values undergo significant appraisal adjustments. |
| Competition risk (CRE lending) | Medium | Intense competition from other mREITs and private credit providers can compress lending margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | While supported by the Blackstone platform, the business quality is tied to the cyclical health of the broader CRE market. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividend reliability depends on the company's ability to maintain a healthy net interest margin and limit credit losses. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The successful management and resolution of non-performing loans in a complex economic environment is critical. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -37.89% | Avg. Invested days 28 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  1.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/03/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.88B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 16.21 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 16.21 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.7M shares | Beta 0.93 | 52 Weeks Range 10.12 - 19.12 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 10.12 - 19.12 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 17.09% | Basic EPS (TTM) -2.23 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Senior Lending | Interest and fees generated from floating-rate senior mortgage loans on commercial properties. | The company acts as a bank for large commercial property developers, earning interest from the loans it provides. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.21 | Actual 0.39 |
Profitability
Profit Margin -256.65% | Operating Margin (TTM) 188.5% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -2.02% | Return on Equity (TTM) -11.67% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 57.14 | Enterprise Value 15.62B | Price to Sales(TTM) 12.84 |
Enterprise Value 15.62B | Price to Sales(TTM) 12.84 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 165.99M | Shares Floating 156.41M |
Shares Outstanding 165.99M | Shares Floating 156.41M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.34 | Percent Institutions 70.86 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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