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The Cheesecake Factory(CAKE)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CAKE
10/09/2026: CAKE (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
The Cheesecake Factory is a prominent US-based casual dining operator best known for its extensive, scratch-made menu and signature premium desserts. The company has a leading position in the 'upscale casual' segment, utilizing strong brand recognition and vertically integrated bakery operations to maintain a distinct market presence. Its primary growth opportunity lies in the continued national expansion of its secondary brands, such as North Italia. However, the company faces significant risks related to labor and commodity cost inflation, as well as the inherent operational complexity of its business model. It may best suit dividend-oriented investors who monitor the balance between store expansion, margin management, and capital allocation.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth through concept expansion but faces headwinds in the mature casual dining sector. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock often lacks the rapid price velocity typically sought by momentum traders unless specific growth catalysts trigger a strong upturn. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The valuation varies based on earnings consistency, making it a potential fit only when trading at attractive multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company's history of paying dividends makes it a suitable candidate for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The restaurant industry is inherently subject to cyclicality and consumer spending volatility, which increases risk for conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is susceptible to fluctuations based on consumer sentiment and broader economic data. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market expectations for growth can sometimes outpace the company's actual performance. |
| Competition risk (restaurant sector) | High | The company must continuously evolve its menu and concept to remain relevant against evolving competitor dining models. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the brand has a loyal following, maintaining high margins across a large footprint remains an ongoing operational challenge. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are subject to the board's discretion and the company's ability to generate sufficient free cash flow. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully scaling secondary brands like North Italia is critical to long-term value creation. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 125.09% | Avg. Invested days 52 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.40B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 29.39 | 1Y Target Price 97.43 |
Price to earnings Ratio 29.39 | 1Y Target Price 97.43 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.3M shares | Beta 1.04 | 52 Weeks Range 42.54 - 118.46 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 42.54 - 118.46 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.07% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.69 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory Restaurants | Dine-in, takeout, and delivery services across its flagship locations. | The primary revenue engine driven by high-traffic, full-service dining. |
| Other Restaurant Concepts | Operations from North Italia and other smaller brands. | A portfolio diversification strategy aiming to capture different consumer segments. |
| Bakery | Production and sale of cheesecakes to internal and external partners. | Provides a high-margin product stream that leverages brand equity beyond the restaurant table. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 29.39 | Forward PE 22.57 | Enterprise Value 7.08B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.39 |
Enterprise Value 7.08B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.39 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.83 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.2 | Shares Outstanding 49.76M | Shares Floating 45.86M |
Shares Outstanding 49.76M | Shares Floating 45.86M | ||
Percent Insiders 7.46 | Percent Institutions 103.88 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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