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Certara Inc(CERT)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CERT
10/28/2026: CERT (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 22 days. Simulated Profits (23.97%). Updated daily EoD!
Certara is a specialized provider of biosimulation software and technology-enabled services that help pharmaceutical companies accelerate drug development. Its primary strength lies in its industry-standard modeling platforms and deep regulatory expertise, which foster long-term relationships with major global biopharma clients. Growth is driven by the industry's shift toward digital R&D and the adoption of more efficient testing methods. However, the company faces risks related to biopharma R&D budget fluctuations and potential competition from new AI entrants. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors who are comfortable with sector-specific volatility and interested in the long-term potential of digital health tools, while noting that no dividends are currently paid.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Certara operates in a growing niche of pharmaceutical R&D with high recurring revenue potential. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on the stock's ability to maintain price appreciation relative to the broader sector. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company often commands a premium valuation typical of high-growth software-as-a-service providers. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Certara does not pay a dividend and focuses on reinvesting cash for growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock exhibits volatility consistent with small-to-mid-cap growth technology companies. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Growth stocks in the technology and health care sectors often see significant price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock can trade at expensive multiples relative to earnings when growth expectations are high. |
| Competition risk (AI and Modeling) | Medium | Emerging AI technologies could lower barriers to entry for software modeling competitors. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has a strong reputation and deep integration into pharmaceutical R&D workflows. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not expect income, as capital is prioritized for product development. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The ability to successfully integrate acquisitions is critical to maintaining technological superiority. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 9.13% | Avg. Invested days 27 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.67B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 9.17 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 9.17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.8M shares | Beta 1.43 | 52 Weeks Range 4.45 - 11.88 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 4.45 - 11.88 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.14 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Software | Subscriptions to biosimulation platforms like Simcyp and Phoenix. | This is high-margin recurring revenue from software that drug researchers use every day. |
| Services | Strategic consulting for regulatory filings and complex data analysis. | This provides steady project-based revenue and deepens client relationships. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.06 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -16.22% | Operating Margin (TTM) -0.21% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.77% | Return on Equity (TTM) -2.21% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 27.17 | Enterprise Value 1.73B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.96 |
Enterprise Value 1.73B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.96 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.11 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.14 | Shares Outstanding 152.54M | Shares Floating 111.95M |
Shares Outstanding 152.54M | Shares Floating 111.95M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.73 | Percent Institutions 111.13 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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