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CERT 
Certara Inc (CERT)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
11/05/2025: CERT (1-star) is a SELL. SELL since 5 days. Simulated Profits (-3.65%). Updated daily EoD!
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
11 Analysts rated it
Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.
1 Year Target Price $14.75
1 Year Target Price $14.75
| 4 | Strong Buy |
| 1 | Buy |
| 6 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.67% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.86B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 231.4 | 1Y Target Price 14.75 |
Price to earnings Ratio 231.4 | 1Y Target Price 14.75 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 1.45 | 52 Weeks Range 8.63 - 15.69 | Updated Date 11/6/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 8.63 - 15.69 | Updated Date 11/6/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.05 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-11-05 | When - | Estimate 0.1079 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.97% | Operating Margin (TTM) 4.97% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.31% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.75% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 231.4 | Forward PE 27.17 | Enterprise Value 2325750688 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.58 |
Enterprise Value 2325750688 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.58 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.73 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.46 | Shares Outstanding 160623580 | Shares Floating 120276543 |
Shares Outstanding 160623580 | Shares Floating 120276543 | ||
Percent Insiders 2.48 | Percent Institutions 109.69 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Certara Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
Certara, Inc. was founded in 2008 through the merger of Pharsight, Tripos, and other companies. It focuses on biosimulation software and services to optimize drug development and regulatory processes. It went public in December 2020. It has grown through acquisitions and organic development.
Core Business Areas
- Software: Certara develops and licenses biosimulation software used by pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and academic institutions. This includes platforms for quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP), physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK), and other modeling techniques.
- Services: Certara offers consulting services related to drug development, regulatory submissions, and market access strategies. This includes model-informed drug development (MIDD), regulatory science, and strategic consulting.
Leadership and Structure
Certara is led by a CEO and executive team. The company operates with a functional structure divided into software development, consulting services, and sales/marketing divisions. EQT is a major stakeholder. As of 2024, William Feehery is the CEO.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Simcyp PBPK: Simcyp is a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling platform used to predict drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion. Certara holds a significant market share in PBPK modeling. Competition includes Open Systems Pharmacology and other in-house modeling efforts. Difficult to get exact market share percentage due to different ways companies may report financials.
- Phoenix WinNonlin: Phoenix WinNonlin is a pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and analysis software used in clinical trials and drug development. This product is well-established in the industry. Competitors include NONMEM and other statistical software packages. Difficult to get exact market share percentage due to different ways companies may report financials.
- D360: D360 is a data analytics and visualization platform designed to accelerate drug discovery and development. It integrates data from various sources to provide insights into drug candidates. Competitors include Spotfire and other data analytics platforms. Difficult to get exact market share percentage due to different ways companies may report financials.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The biopharmaceutical industry faces increasing pressures to reduce development costs, improve success rates, and accelerate time to market. This drives demand for biosimulation and model-informed drug development (MIDD) approaches.
Positioning
Certara is a leading provider of biosimulation software and services, positioned to benefit from the growing adoption of MIDD in the pharmaceutical industry. Its competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive suite of software, consulting expertise, and established relationships with regulatory agencies.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for biosimulation software and services is estimated to be in the billions of dollars, growing due to the increasing complexity of drug development. Certara is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of this market. Multiple sources estimate market to be near $4B and expanding.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Leading market position in biosimulation
- Comprehensive suite of software and services
- Established relationships with regulatory agencies
- Expertise in model-informed drug development (MIDD)
- Strong brand reputation
Weaknesses
- High dependence on the pharmaceutical industry
- Potential for disruption from new technologies
- Integration challenges from acquisitions
- Sensitivity to economic downturns
- Competition from other software and service providers
Opportunities
- Growing adoption of MIDD in drug development
- Expansion into new therapeutic areas
- Increased demand for regulatory science services
- Partnerships with pharmaceutical companies
- Development of new biosimulation technologies
Threats
- Economic downturns impacting pharmaceutical spending
- Increased competition from new entrants
- Changes in regulatory requirements
- Disruption from AI and machine learning
- Data privacy and security concerns
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- MSCI
- ICON
- WCG
Competitive Landscape
Certara is a leader in biosimulation, competing with other software and service providers. Its advantages include a comprehensive suite of solutions and established regulatory relationships. Disadvantages may include higher prices and potential integration challenges.
Major Acquisitions
BaseCase
- Year: 2018
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 82
- Strategic Rationale: Expanded market access capabilities and enhanced value demonstration offerings.
DARWIN EUu00ae Coordination Centre
- Year: 2024
- Acquisition Price (USD millions):
- Strategic Rationale: This initiative, coordinated by Certara, aims to generate reliable real-world evidence on the use, safety, and effectiveness of medicines and vaccines, expanding Certara's capabilities in this area.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Certara has experienced growth driven by the adoption of biosimulation in drug development and strategic acquisitions.
Future Projections: Future growth depends on continued adoption of MIDD, expansion into new markets, and successful execution of strategic initiatives. Analyst estimates should be consulted for specific projections.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding its software portfolio, enhancing its consulting services, and strengthening its partnerships with pharmaceutical companies.
Summary
Certara is a strong player in the biosimulation software and services market, driven by the growing adoption of model-informed drug development. Its comprehensive product suite and established relationships provide a competitive edge. However, the company should carefully manage its dependence on the pharmaceutical industry and watch out for competition and technological disruptions. Certara continues to grow through both organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Certara's Investor Relations website
- SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Industry reports on biosimulation and drug development
- Analyst reports
- Company Press Releases
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute financial advice. Actual results may vary.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Certara Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Radnor, PA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2020-12-11 | CEO & Director Dr. William F. Feehery Ph.D. | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Health Information Services | Full time employees 1487 | Website https://www.certara.com |
Full time employees 1487 | Website https://www.certara.com | ||
Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-enabled services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers solutions for model-informed drug development, as well as biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic biosimulation platform for physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulation; Simcyp Discovery for scientists working on pre-investigational new drug and translational stages; Simcyp Biopharmaceutics for formulation scientists; and Simcyp Secondary Intelligence that integrates toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional biological changes. It also provides Phoenix WinNonlin, a platform for non-compartmental analysis; Phoenix Hosted, that offers a secured and validated Certara Amazon Web Services workspace; Phoenix NLME; and Pirana Modeling Workbench, which provides modelers with a structure to facilitate the iterative processes. In addition, it offers Chemaxon JChem engines; Chemaxon Compound Registration, that supports a streamlined lead optimization process workflow; Chemaxon Design Hub, a design and tracking platform for drug discovery teams and their external collaborators; Certara D360 software, a scientific informatics system for small molecule and biologics discovery research; and Chemaxon Marvin, a chemical drawing tool. Further, the company provides pinnacle 21, a cloud-based platform for clinical data automation, standardization, and validation; Pinnacle 21 Data Exchange to define data standards and specifications; Metadata Repository that enables study design using controlled and standardized data; CoAuthor software, which creates and assembles regulatory submissions and medical publications; and GlobalSubmit, a submissions management software. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
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