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Upturn AI Summary - About
CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CF
10/28/2026: CF (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
CF Industries is a major North American producer of nitrogen-based fertilizers, essential for global crop production. The company has a leading position, driven by its access to cost-advantaged natural gas and a highly efficient logistics network. Its investment story centers on its ability to generate significant cash flow during peak fertilizer cycles and its strategic shift toward producing blue ammonia for the energy transition. Investors should monitor risks related to commodity price volatility, farm economic cycles, and the execution of clean energy initiatives. It generally suits investors looking for value or cyclical exposure, often providing consistent dividends, though it remains prone to high stock price volatility.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely cyclical rather than secular, making it a better fit for value-oriented growth strategies. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits strong momentum during agricultural commodity upswings. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock is often priced attractively relative to its cash flow potential during the bottom of the commodity cycle. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are reliable, but the cyclical nature of the business can influence long-term payout stability. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to commodity price volatility creates significant stock price fluctuation. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The business is highly sensitive to fluctuating nitrogen and natural gas prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing often fluctuates significantly based on expected commodity cycles. |
| Competition risk (Nitrogen supply) | Medium | Global capacity additions can pressure margins if supply outstrips demand. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The company has strong operational efficiency and a cost-advantaged asset base. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts are stable but remain subject to the board's assessment of cyclical cash flows. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Large-scale capital projects in carbon capture and clean ammonia involve technical and regulatory risks. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 8.94% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 18.24B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.94 | 1Y Target Price 128.34 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.94 | 1Y Target Price 128.34 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.4M shares | Beta 0.53 | 52 Weeks Range 74.33 - 141.66 | Updated Date 10/27/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 74.33 - 141.66 | Updated Date 10/27/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.66% | Basic EPS (TTM) 13.48 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen Production | Ammonia, Urea, and UAN product sales to agriculture and industrial clients. | The company makes money by converting low-cost natural gas into fertilizer that farmers need to grow crops. |
| Geography: North America | Primary production and distribution centers in the United States and Canada. | Most revenue comes from North American agricultural demand, making it a proxy for US farm health. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 3.12 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 27.12% | Operating Margin (TTM) 49.33% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 12.93% | Return on Equity (TTM) 29.87% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.94 | Forward PE 10.55 | Enterprise Value 19.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.36 |
Enterprise Value 19.42B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.36 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.51 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.68 | Shares Outstanding 151.34M | Shares Floating 150.28M |
Shares Outstanding 151.34M | Shares Floating 150.28M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.45 | Percent Institutions 108.75 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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